Ah, the venerable Goldman Sachsâthose sharp-eyed financial soothsayersâhave once again peered into the murky depths of Chinaâs economic cauldron and recoiled in horror! Behold, an ominous specter has emerged: wages in the Middle Kingdom are crawling forward at the pace of a sleepy tortoise, a mere 3.9% growth in the second quarter of 2024. A figure so dismal, it would make even a pandemic-era statistician weep into their abacus. And, as if that werenât tragic enough, the Goldman wizards whisper that this number is a full percentage point lower than the governmentâs own suspiciously rosy reports. How shocking! Or perhaps not shocking at all. đ€
âOur wage tracker,â the economists intone gravely, âsuggests that sluggish wage growth may impose headwinds to consumption growth in the second half of 2025.â Ah, yes, “headwinds”âthe polite financial term for “the economy is about to sneeze, and everyone will catch a cold.” Fear not, dear reader, for they assure us that the government will surely unleash a flurry of “incremental and targeted easing measures” to soothe the labor market. Because nothing fixes economic woes like a few well-placed bureaucratic band-aids. đ©č
Meanwhile, the ever-observant Ernan Cui, a China consumer analyst at Gavekal, has noticed something peculiar: Chinese workers, in a desperate bid to avoid starvation (or perhaps just boredom), are fleeing formal employment like rats from a sinking ship. Instead, theyâre embracing the noble art of self-employmentâselling trinkets, hawking dubious remedies, or perhaps just staring at the sky and calling it a “consulting business.” The government, ever eager to keep up appearances, dutifully counts these enterprising souls in their statistics. But alas, Cui notes, these poor souls may not grace the surveys of large companies. A tragic oversight, or perhaps a convenient one? đ
âThe data indicate,â Cui sighs, âthat Chinaâs labor market has been consistently weak, despite a broadly stable headline unemployment rate.â Ah, stability! That magical word that means everything is fineâuntil it isnât. And until the labor market tightens (or until pigs fly, whichever comes first), household confidence will remain as buoyant as a lead balloon. đ
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2025-07-22 12:27