Could Two New Docs Subtly Change the Presidential Election?

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Could Two New Docs Subtly Change the Presidential Election?

As a seasoned political observer with decades of experience under my belt, I find myself captivated by the current narrative unfolding in American politics. The endorsement of Kamala Harris by Dick Cheney is a striking turn of events that speaks volumes about the changing dynamics within the Republican party.

Adam Kinzinger had repeatedly declined over a dozen offers for a documentary production, until one day, the director from “Hot Tub Time Machine” entered the scene.

The Illinois Republican congressman, well-known for his solitary opposition to Donald Trump following January 6th, initially hesitated to take part in a film centered around his diminishing chances of keeping his seat. However, Steve Pink, the director behind the hot tub movie, wanted to delve deeper into his personal struggles.

Kinzinger stated during an interview with THR, as the Toronto International Film Festival commenced on Thursday, that everyone else seemed focused on re-election. However, when he spoke with Steve and his team, their concern was not about re-election, but rather the human aspect – the potential cost to you and your future children.

Two years have passed since our discussion, and now the movie titled “The Last Republican,” set to premiere at TIFF 2024 on a Saturday, has the potential to resonate beyond just Kinzinger. Similarly, another film, “Carville” – a documentary about James Carville shown at Telluride – delves into the political consultant’s efforts to sway the Democrats from President Biden. These films may bring movies directly into the heat of the upcoming election. However, it remains to be seen how eager movie companies are about these narratives, and whether they will significantly impact the final voting results.

Carville, at least, has answered the first question. CNN Films bought the movie (subtitle “Winning Is Everything, Stupid”) just before Telluride and will debut it on-air October 5 with an eye toward influencing voters. The Last Republican still seeks its own home when it plays for distributors this weekend, making the case that a good way to defeat Donald Trump is to popularize the backboned Republican who defied him. Submarine is handling sales on the film. 

Despite the current gloomy circumstances where Trump continues to hold power, it appears that questionable activities regarding this year’s election are likely. Yet, there’s someone who, despite my disagreement with their political views, consistently puts their beliefs into practice. I believe this will strike a chord with many people,” Pink stated in an interview.

Both the Republican party and Carville stand a chance of creating a stir in the 2025 Oscar Documentary category, where there have been numerous potential candidates but no clear front-runners yet. However, their influence on the race could extend beyond mere popularity.

Pink’s film was developed when he, along with producer Jason Kohn (known for creating the Andre Agassi documentary “Love Means Zero” at TIFF 2017), presented their idea to Kinzinger that his tale deserved to be showcased on screen. And what a tale it is: a veteran Air National Guard pilot and conservative ideologue who criticized Trump’s involvement in January 6, even joining the predominantly Democratic Congressional commission. This move caused Republicans to ostracize him, culminating in them redrawing his district, effectively removing him from office.

A rapport even developed between Pink, an avowed liberal, and Kinzinger; the film suggests an odd-couple affability.  “At some point this started to feel like the national Thanksgiving dinner we haven’t been able to have since 2016,” Kohn said wryly.

Unlikely candidates for an in-depth Rayburn depiction might be filmmakers renowned for their use of time manipulation with chlorine and narrating tales of tennis deceptions. However, their skills in crafting implausible narratives and capturing unconventional characters prove fitting. Kinzinger bolsters his case effectively with a bold, frequently humorous persona, starkly contrasting the formality of Congress despite the looming danger of death threats.

To some MAGA Republicans, Representative Kinzinger is seen as a traitor like Judas; to liberal Democrats, he’s viewed as a hero or martyr. However, despite courting attention and even agreeing to a movie about his actions, Kinzinger himself doesn’t see it that way. “I’m not courageous,” he stated in the interview. “I’m just surrounded by cowards.” This sentiment mirrors a theme from the film as well.

For distributors, the calculus on Last Republican is a tricky one: they could buy the film now and see its value skyrocket if Trump wins. But if Trump is defeated on Nov 5, possibly for the last time, the film might be worth a lot less.

If a distributor decides to launch a pre-election release, it might serve as an example for strong Republican voters that defying Trump is an option. This could portray a character who made such a stand despite losing his career in the process.

Kohn suggested that while it may seem unconventional, there’s a compelling counter-narrative to Trump’s portrayal of Adam as disloyal, a RINO (Republican In Name Only), and not representative of the party. He believes a conservative audience could find this alternative story appealing. On Friday, Dick Cheney added weight to this narrative by endorsing Kamala Harris, joining other Republicans in their support.

The screening of this movie might stir audiences to remember vividly the thwarted insurrection and, moreover, the mainstream Republican figures who subsequently shifted their stance on Trump following initial criticisms. Notably, Kevin McCarthy emerges as one of those most affected by these changes in allegiance.

As a fervent supporter, I found myself deeply resonating with Matt Tyrnauer’s documentary, “Carville.” It delves into the concerning groupthink within our party, portraying numerous scenes from earlier this year, filled with my own growls, curses, and exasperated eye-rolls. The documentary captures my frustration over what I perceive as our party’s dangerous inclination to defer to an incumbent who appears unelectable. For a long time, these sentiments seemed to fall on deaf ears.

Tyrnauer remembered that the film seemed like it was close to being a hopeless case – the hero came in too late,” is one way to paraphrase the original sentence in a natural and easy-to-read manner.

On the evening of the significant Trump-Biden debate in June, the movie was exclusively shown for friends and family. As soon as the lights illuminated before Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, Tyrnauer realized he had a fresh ending at his disposal. Consequently, the film now concludes with a shift towards Harris.

While I’ve been sharing insights about politics for quite some time now, there’s always a risk that my thoughts might appear less fresh or innovative. However, James Carville and Randy Tyrnauer argue that the movie, which delves into Carville’s strategic work on Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, his unique marriage to Republican operative Mary Matalin, and his larger-than-life Louisiana persona always seen on airport TV, remains as relevant today as it was back then. They believe that the film continues to convey a timeless message about the intricate dance of politics and the profound value of public service.

Additionally, the principals are convinced that their movie can contribute significantly as the election campaign progresses. According to Tyrnauer, one primary objective was ensuring its release prior to voting commencing, while Carville perceives the film’s ability to impact voter decisions for the 2024 elections.

Carville stated in an interview that it’s uncertain if the movie will sway votes for many viewers, but perhaps it will motivate someone to write extra 100 postcards or join a phone bank campaign. There are countless ways people can be moved to action. My hope is that this film encourages more individuals to participate in the election process.

A CNN spokeswoman, Jordan Overstreet, declined to comment on the network’s aims for the film.

The background of films aiming to influence electoral outcomes has been mixed. For instance, Michael Moore’s critically acclaimed 2004 documentary “Fahrenheit 9/11,” which aimed to discourage votes for George W. Bush, fell short in its primary objective. However, contemporary documentaries such as “Blackfish” and “Citizenfour” have been successful in shifting public perception. Experts suggest that it’s not difficult to imagine similar effects happening here.

Thom Powers, a seasoned documentary expert who oversees the doc section at TIFF, stated that it’s been shown repeatedly that filmmakers don’t significantly impact elections. However, he believes that a film can resonate powerfully with the cultural moment and influence people’s perspectives. He suggests that films such as The Last Republican playing this year could potentially strike a chord in this manner.

Kinzinger says he’s trying to keep his eye on something even bigger.

In 2124, under President Zarkon 3 or whichever leader that may be, it seems we’ll still find ourselves embroiled in the same discussions as today. However, if our society deteriorates into one where people lose trust in its institutions and resort to violence due to feelings of being unheard, reaching such a future becomes increasingly difficult.

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2024-09-07 21:25