As a seasoned cryptocurrency investor with years of experience under my belt, I’ve seen market fluctuations like these more times than I can count. The rollercoaster ride of Initialcoin Japan (INJ) has been quite the spectacle this week. After witnessing its steep decline below the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA, I was bracing for impact. But just when I thought it had hit rock bottom, INJ managed to rebound, showing a resilience that left me both surprised and impressed.
As an analyst, I’d rephrase it this way: Over the weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated a fairly optimistic performance, surpassing the $63,000 threshold again after dipping to $60,031 on Thursday. In the last 24 hours, the leading cryptocurrency has climbed by nearly 3%, peaking at $63,916 earlier today before a wave of sellers caused the price to dip below $63,500. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around the $63,400 level.
Currently trading at $2,480 after a brief surge above $2,500 early today, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to regain the $2,500 level with a nearly 3% increase over the past day. The overall crypto market has seen a recovery over the weekend, leading to a 2.73% boost in the global market cap, now standing at approximately $2.21 trillion.
Bitcoin (BTC) Facing Selling Pressure
The value of Bitcoin (BTC) owned by long-term holders is plummeting, causing them to sell off their coins and putting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency. This significant drop in long-term holder’s BTC exposure, as shown by CryptoQuant data, suggests that these investors are currently avoiding risks with Bitcoin. Long-term holders, defined as those who have held BTC for 155 days or longer, have reportedly reduced their investment in the asset.
Lately, we’ve seen a substantial drop of about $6 billion in the Long-Term Holder Realized Capital (previously at $19 billion, now at $12 billion). This could indicate that these investors might be cashing out their gains or ending their purchase transactions.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that short-term investors are adopting a distinct strategy in the cryptocurrency market by progressively boosting their Bitcoin holdings.
On the other hand, it appears that the ‘Short-Term Holder’s STH Cap (orange)’ has experienced a significant surge of approximately $6 billion. This change has moved the figure from a negative $17 billion to a negative $11 billion. This shift suggests that short-term holders might be becoming more risk-prone or expanding their investment positions.
AI Tokens Lead Weekend Rebound
Altcoins led the charge as the crypto markets recovered over the weekend, as geopolitical worries were reduced, and a blowout US Jobs report put to rest recession fears for the time being. AI-focused tokens such as Bittensor (TAO) and RNDR led the charge, registering an increase of 14% and 8%, respectively, as the weekend kicked in. TAO has been up almost 16% over the past 24 hours, while RNDR has been up nearly 3% in the same period. In a significant development, asset manager Grayscale significantly increased the weight of TAO in its AI-focused crypto fund from 3% to 27%.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin surged past $63,000 again, boosted by a robust US job market report exceeding expectations. This report revealed an unexpected increase of 251,000 jobs in September, which is more than double the projected 140,000 figure. Furthermore, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Continue
In the recent period, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net withdrawal of approximately $300 million following September’s close, marking a historically weak month. Over $1.1 billion had been invested into these ETFs prior to this. Between October 1st and October 3rd, there was an outflow of about $388 million from the twelve U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs as tensions in the Middle East intensified. Although better-than-expected US employment data offered some comfort, it failed to halt a three-day streak of outflows.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) began the second week of October, with market watchers hoping that “Uptober” would finally begin this week. BTC is up almost 3%, while other altcoins are in the green by anywhere between 4% and 10%. BTC briefly climbed above $64,000 early on Monday but was rejected at this level and is currently trading at the $63,600 price level, indicating that $64,000 is a key resistance level. Several factors have contributed to BTC and the crypto market’s recovery. The United Aram Emirates (UAE) announced the introduction of revised VAT regulations, exempting the transfer and conversion of digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, which is a positive sign for almost all cryptocurrency traders.
meme coins have once again gained momentum, showing a substantial increase over the last 24 hours. At the same time, political events are significantly influencing the situation. According to Polymarket, Donald Trump now has a 51% probability against Kamala Harris, which is his most significant lead in over a month. This development aligns with Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency stance, generating optimism among investors.
By examining the Bitcoin (BTC) price graph, it’s evident that the $64,000 mark poses a significant resistance due to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Last week, BTC exhibited bearish behavior, recording a significant decline on Tuesday that dropped its value below the 20-day SMA. However, it found support at approximately $60,000, a level where it has strong backing. On Wednesday, BTC displayed considerable price fluctuations as buyers aimed to push the price above the 20-day SMA, but sellers blocked this attempt after BTC peaked at $62,456 that day, eventually falling by 0.33% to close at $60,671. Notably, though, the buyers were able to keep BTC above the $60,000 mark.
On Thursday, Bitcoin experienced a slight uptick as both buyers and sellers battled for dominance. Yet, with investors capitalizing on the dip, Bitcoin rebounded robustly on Friday, recording a 2.14% rise to $62,214. Saturday saw a minor drop, but markets bounced back on Sunday, enabling Bitcoin to surpass the resistance at $62,500 and close at $62,813. Currently, Bitcoin is up by 1.16%, trading slightly above $63,500 as buyers aim to break through the local resistance at $64,000.
If Bitcoin (BTC) manages to surpass $64,000, it could reignite its upward trend and potentially drive the price above $65,000. Conversely, traders looking to sell might try to pull BTC down to around $60,000. If Bitcoin fails to hold above this $60,000 mark, it would indicate that sellers are in control of the market.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
Over the past weekend, Ethereum (ETH) failed to surpass the $2,700 mark, which triggered a notable bearish trend for the rest of the week. Throughout this period, ETH found itself in the red almost constantly, breaching important support levels and falling below both its 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The most pronounced drop occurred on Wednesday when ETH plummeted nearly 6%, slipping under the 20-day and 50-day SMAs and diving below $2,500 to close at $2,448. Attempts by buyers to recover the losses on Wednesday were futile, as sellers regained control and drove the price down an additional 3.40% to $2,365, falling beneath the critical $2,400 level. ETH exhibited significant volatility on Thursday as sellers tried to push the price below $2,300; however, buyers managed to prevent further decline, ensuring the price stayed above $2,300. The week ended with ETH settling at $2,350, marking a decrease of 0.64%.
On Friday, ETH experienced a recovery, surging by approximately 2.76%, moving it over $2,400 and settling at $2,415. Sellers tried to push down ETH on Saturday, aiming to drop it below $2,400, but buyers managed to regain control. As a result, ETH saw an increase of 1.05% on Sunday, closing at $2,440. In the current session, ETH is continuing its recovery, with prices almost 2% up and trading just below $2,500. Looking at the price chart, buyers attempted to push past $2,500 but failed to maintain the price above this level.
After the market’s recent recovery and increased optimism, there’s a good chance Ethereum (ETH) will try to surpass its 50-day Simple Moving Average and $2,500. But if sellers regain control, they might push ETH back down towards $2,400. A drop below this point could cause ETH’s price to slide to around $2,300 before recovering again.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) is aiming to rebound over $150 as markets show signs of improvement following a challenging week. As we observe in the price graph, SOL largely remained in the red throughout the past week after being denied at $160 on Sunday. This refusal led to sellers gaining control, pushing SOL below $150 on Tuesday. By Wednesday, SOL dipped beneath both the 20 and 50-day moving averages to $140 following a decrease of 3.44%. Volatility heightened on Thursday as sellers tried to drive SOL under $140. Consequently, SOL reached its lowest point for the day at $133 before experiencing a slight recovery and ending at $136, representing a drop of 2.40% from the day prior.
On Friday, markets experienced a positive shift with SOL experiencing a significant bounce back by 4.62%, moving it over the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and above $140 to $142. However, on Saturday, there was a minimal decrease as sellers failed to push SOL below $140 and the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA now serves as a strong support level, drawing in buyers, which resulted in a 2.73% increase for SOL on Sunday, closing the week at $146, just under the 20-day SMA.
Right now, Solana (SOL) is witnessing a rise of nearly 2%, as buyers strive to push the price above $150. Presently, the price stands at $148. If the buyers manage to surpass $150, SOL might challenge the resistance level at $160 again. Conversely, if sellers regain control, they’ll aim to pull SOL back under $140.
Polkadot (DOT) Price Analysis
Polkadot (DOT) aims to surpass the $4.50 mark again, targeting a potential return to $5, as it navigates past its 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, DOT’s upward push towards $5 last weekend lost steam at a crucial juncture, causing the price to dip. Consequently, DOT witnessed a steep decline of approximately 7% on Monday and an additional 6.32% on Tuesday, dropping below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs as well as $4.50, closing at $4.16. The price fluctuated significantly on Wednesday as buyers tried to reverse the downward trend while sellers aimed to lower it further. Eventually, DOT experienced a decrease of 1.44% and ended the day at $4.10.
On Thursday, DOT dipped down to a daily low of $3.99 but soon regained its footing, climbing over $4 and settling at $4.23 for the day. The upward trend continued on Friday, with DOT increasing by 1.45% to reach $4.19. However, the weekend was a mixed bag for DOT; it experienced a decrease of 1.19% on Saturday but managed to recover, growing by 1.21% on Sunday and ending at $4.19. Overall, the previous week ended positively for DOT. In the current session, DOT is up by 1.19%, with buyers aiming to push it above $5. If DOT can build enough momentum to surpass $4.50, a return to $5 might be possible. Yet, whether or not DOT will manage to go beyond $5 remains uncertain. Conversely, sellers are looking to drag DOT back towards its support levels. DOT has strong support at $4, and it may prove challenging for sellers to push the price lower. If this level is breached, DOT could slide down to $3.62.
Injective (INJ) Price Analysis
Last week, I observed a notable decline in the value of INJ, following its peak at $25 on Tuesday. After encountering resistance at that level, INJ plummeted nearly 10%, dipping below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to $29.68. On Wednesday, buyers made a valiant effort to recuperate, but INJ struggled to maintain its position above $20. However, sellers regained control as INJ reached a daily high of $22.35, causing another 2.39% drop to $20.19. The selling pressure escalated on Thursday when INJ fell below $20 and the 50-day SMA after a steep decline of 5.67%, settling at $19.04.
Initially, the stock fell below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and $20 on Thursday, but on Friday it bounced back, surpassing those levels again due to a 7% rise that ended at $20.37. On Saturday, sellers tried to pull the price down beneath $20 once more, causing a 2.36% drop to $19.89. However, on Sunday, it rebounded from the 50-day SMA again and rose by 4.29%, closing at $20.75. Currently, INJ is experiencing a 1.26% increase in the session, aiming to surpass its 20-day SMA.
Akash Network (AKT) Price Analysis
Akash Network’s token (AKT) is finding it tough to break above its 50-day Simple Moving Average and has been quite volatile due to the ongoing tussle between buyers and sellers. Last week, AKT saw a significant bearish trend, experiencing a steep drop since it failed to surpass $3 last Sunday. After being repelled from this level, AKT started showing bearish signs, dipping below its 20-day SMA on Tuesday following a 5.42% fall, and then failing to rebound above the 20-day SMA on Wednesday. By the end of trading on Thursday, AKT had registered a decline of 3.82%, closing at $2.51. On Friday, sellers managed to push AKT below $2.50, dropping it further to $2.43, representing a 3.42% decrease.
Markets recovered on Friday as AKT pushed back above $2.50 after an increase of almost 4% and settled at $2.52. However, AKT has been highly volatile since the weekend, with neither buyers nor sellers able to exert control. Sellers are attempting to push AKT back below $2.50 but have been unable to do so. On the other hand, buyers have also been unable to break past the 50-day SMA. The current session sees AKT marginally down after yet another failed attempt to push above the 50-day SMA.
Ronin (RON) Price Analysis
Following its unsuccessful attempt to surpass $2 last Sunday, Ronin (RON) shifted to a bearish trend. It peaked at $1.93 before plummeting and recording a decrease of 7.24% on Monday and nearly 7% on Tuesday, dipping below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and landing at $1.65. On Wednesday, buyers tried to reverse the trend as RON climbed back above its 20-day SMA to reach a high of $1.71. However, the momentum wasn’t sustained, leading to another drop of almost 3%, slipping below the 50-day SMA and settling at $1.60. The bearish trend continued on Thursday as RON declined by 0.92% to reach $1.59.
On Friday, RON experienced a 4.41% rise, surpassing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to reach $1.66. Yet, it failed to break past the 20-day SMA, sliding 1.35% back down to $1.64 on Saturday. Notably, RON managed to hold above the 50-day SMA and inched up slightly on Sunday, ending the weekend with a small gain. Currently, RON is showing a slight decline as traders aim to push the price under the 50-day SMA and $1.60.
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2024-10-07 16:07