As a seasoned investor with years of experience navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, I find myself intrigued by the current market trends. Let’s start with Polkadot (DOT). The recent price action suggests a struggle for control between buyers and sellers, with $5 serving as a significant resistance level. If buyers can’t push DOT above this mark, we might see it trading within the range of $4.20 to $5 for some time. It’s like trying to push a heavy stone uphill – you need enough energy to conquer the incline!
On Sunday, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below the $60,000 mark, dropping even lower than the $59,000 price point as markets experienced a downturn over the weekend. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday peak of $61,970 but subsequently shifted to a bearish trend and touched a low of $58,395.
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has dropped below the 200-day SMA in the Bitcoin price chart, suggesting that sellers are dominating the market. Furthermore, despite a significant rebound of BTC on August 8, buyers have found it difficult to push prices beyond $62,000, which could mean that there is strong selling activity at higher levels.
On Sunday, there was a 3.18% decrease in the wider cryptocurrency market, causing its total value to drop below $2 trillion. Additionally, long positions experienced a substantial decline on that day as well.
Sunday Blues
In addition to the overall crypto market experiencing a dip of about 3.18%, Bitcoin (BTC) itself dropped by nearly 3.8% to reach a low of $58,395 on Binance. Interestingly, global crypto trading volume rose by 7.53% as compared to Saturday. However, these figures are relatively modest when compared to the previous week, with the recent decrease in BTC’s price contributing to a 13.9% decline in its value against the US Dollar over the last fortnight. Similarly, other significant cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH) saw a drop, reaching a low of $2,543.
As someone who has been closely watching and investing in the crypto market for several years now, I can’t help but notice a significant shift in the prices of various cryptocurrencies over the weekend. Toncoin (TON), for instance, took a plunge of almost 8%, while XRP barely moved with just over 4% drop. Solana (SOL), which had been on an upward trajectory until now, saw its momentum halted over the weekend, losing the $150 level and registering an 8% drop on Sunday alone.
On Sunday, the market for crypto derivative contracts experienced significant strain as around 55,000 traders found their long positions terminated. According to Coinglass’s data, these terminations resulted in a total of approximately $102 million in losses. Out of this sum, nearly $26 million were from Bitcoin transactions and about $23 million from Ethereum trades. Long positions in Solana accounted for around $8.4 million in liquidations on that day.
Whales Still Bullish
In simpler terms, when the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) drops below the 200-day SMA, it’s seen as a bearish signal, often referred to as a “Death Cross.” However, this pattern hasn’t been very reliable in predicting Bitcoin price trends in the past. An analyst, looking at historical data, suggests that traders shouldn’t be overly concerned about this event. Instead, he believes it might be a trap before Bitcoin starts a powerful bullish rally, which is sometimes referred to as a “bear trap.” The Death Cross happens when the 50-day SMA falls beneath the 200-day SMA, suggesting that Bitcoin’s short-term momentum may struggle against its long-term price growth.
“The ‘death cross’ in Bitcoin isn’t as lethal as it seems. This event has occurred just 8 times since 2015. So, what follows? In about 60 days, Bitcoin tends to increase by an average of 62%. The middle value for this period is a +18% rise.”
It appears that the anonymous trader known as Tardigrade has expressed confidence in the ‘bear trap’ theory. This implies that Bitcoin’s recent dip to $49,000 could be the start of an extended bullish trend for the cryptocurrency. His analysis reveals a striking resemblance between the current market situation and what happened in 2016, suggesting that, similar to 2017, we might witness another parabolic rise following this dip.
Last week, large-scale Bitcoin investors (often referred to as “whales”) perceived a positive trend and took bold steps to buy more Bitcoin. On the other hand, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on spot Bitcoin witnessed substantial withdrawals. Remarkably, both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded considerable outflows.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Over the weekend, there was a significant decrease in Bitcoin (BTC) prices, causing it to fall below $60,000 per unit. This downtrend has persisted into the new week, with BTC dropping by more than 4% over the past 24 hours. One expert believes that the crypto market lacks a stable point of reference and is prone to shifts based on traditional market movements. Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have also been affected, experiencing outflows amounting to approximately $89 million. It’s possible that BTC will continue to fall this week due to technical vulnerabilities. However, positive news from the traditional market could help reduce selling pressure and potentially stabilize prices.
“It’s expected that cryptocurrency prices will move within a narrow range, leaning towards a downward trend. Despite this, there’s still potential for further price drops due to technical indicators and market sentiment. For instance, on-chain cost models and MVRV models suggest an ongoing correction before the Jackson Hole event. The crypto market is currently without a strong reference point, making it vulnerable to continued repositioning. Additionally, there’s been minimal inflow of funds into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in recent trading sessions.”
On Thursday, earnings reports from retail giants Alibaba and Walmart will be released, while GDP figures for Taiwan and Hong Kong will follow on Friday. As displayed in the graph below, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge on Thursday, climbing by approximately 12% to surpass $60,000 and settle at $61,763. However, sellers were active around these levels, protecting the moving averages. Consequently, Bitcoin dipped on Friday, losing 1.34% to reach $60,932. Saturday was relatively quiet, with only a minimal price increase. On Sunday, buyers made an attempt to break through the moving averages as Bitcoin peaked at an intraday high of $61,970.
Despite experiencing a significant decrease, the price of BTC took a bearish turn and fell nearly 4%, dipping below $60,000 to reach $58,775 by the end of the weekend. The current trading session finds BTC slightly down, hovering just under the $58,500 mark. If the downtrend continues, there’s potential for a further drop to around $55,000 before prices stabilize. Conversely, if buyers manage to counteract the selling pressure and prevent a major plunge, it indicates they are buying during this dip, increasing the chances of a speedy rebound.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
Over the past few days, I’ve observed a persisting challenge for Ethereum (ETH) in maintaining its price above the $2,500 threshold. A significant resistance level can be found around $2,850, where demand seems to falter as bullish momentum wanes amidst selling pressure. Despite robust interest at lower prices, the upper echelons of ETH’s price spectrum have seen a decline in demand.
Despite attempts by buyers to push ETH above $2,800, demand tapered off at higher prices, causing a drop in Ethereum’s value. On Friday, ETH declined by more than 3% to $2,601 and showed no significant changes on Saturday. However, the downward trend continued on Sunday after another unsuccessful effort by buyers to reach $2,800. As buyer strength waned, ETH dropped to $2,556. The ongoing session sees a 0.50% decrease in ETH as sellers aim to push it below $2,500. If the decline persists, ETH may slide down to $2,300. In such a case, the $2,100 support level could become relevant. However, if buyers can hold ETH above $2,100, it will likely fluctuate between its support and resistance levels for the near future.
During the past week, as the value of ETH remained challenging, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Ethereum wrapped up the second week of August with optimistic results, marking the initial week of positivity since the debut of these Ethereum-linked ETFs.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) crashed over the weekend, erasing gains made on Thursday, as its recent upswing peaked after reaching a high of $163 on Thursday. However, it fell back in the red on Friday after encountering strong resistance at higher levels, with the 20-day SMA adding to it. As a result of demand drying up at higher levels, SOL fell by 4.18% to $156.41. The price continued to drop over the weekend, falling by 1.47% on Saturday to settle just above the 50-day SMA. Bears were able to drag SOL below the 50 and 200-day SMAs on Sunday as SOL fell by over 8% to go below $150 and settle at $141.
During the present trading period, Solana (SOL) has significantly bounced back, increasing nearly 4%. Investors aim to take control of the $150 price point and surpass the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The question is: what’s next for SOL? If buyers manage to maintain their momentum, SOL could reclaim $150 and move beyond its 200-day SMA. A leap above the 50-day SMA might lead SOL to challenge the resistance at $160. On the flip side, if sellers regain control, SOL could slide down to $130. If they overpower this barrier, it may pave the way for a potential dip to $110.
Polkadot (DOT) Price Analysis
Over the past week, Polkadot (DOT) dipped to a multi-year support level of around $3.60 on August 5, dropping below the significant $5 threshold. Yet, it swiftly rebounded, moving back over $4 by Thursday following a nearly 7% surge in a single day. However, it faced robust resistance at this point and dipped back slightly on Friday, losing almost 2% to $4.79. A minor decrease followed on Saturday, but selling pressure intensified on Sunday, causing the price to plummet by 5.46% to $4.50. In the current trading session, DOT has seen a recovery of about 1.33%, now trading at $4.56.
Currently, DOT is encountering notable opposition at the $5 mark, which is keeping its value low. Despite robust interest at lower price points ($3.60 and $4), the momentum among buyers seems to be waning as the price rises, due to a lack of demand. For DOT to experience a meaningful rebound, purchasers need to push the price past $5. If they are unable to do so, DOT may trade within the range of $4.20 and $5 for the near future.
Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis
Over the weekend, Ripple (XRP) experienced a significant decline after peaking at $0.64 on Wednesday. Attempts were made by buyers to push XRP above $0.65 on Thursday, reaching $0.643, but sellers quickly regained control, causing XRP to drop back down to $0.61. The trend continued on Friday as bearish sentiment took hold, resulting in a near 6% decrease in XRP’s value to $0.58. This decline also caused the price of XRP to fall below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
On Saturday, purchasers tried to regain ground, yet with demand decreasing at higher price points, XRP failed to surpass its 20-day Simple Moving Average and merely experienced a slight growth. The following day, Sunday, brought about a substantial decline as XRP dropped by 5.34%, reaching $0.55. However, the price bounced back from this level and has risen by nearly 4% in the current trading session, currently at $0.57. Given that XRP’s support level of $0.55 remains strong, buyers might attempt to push beyond $0.60 again. If they are unsuccessful, XRP could revert to this support level. A breakthrough of this level could lead to a drop towards $0.50 or even lower. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is currently displaying bearish tendencies but may shift to bullish if buyers can exceed $0.60.
Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis
After last week’s market crash that saw Toncoin (TON) plummet to $4.86 on Monday, the cryptocurrency demonstrated a remarkable resurgence. Supported by the 200-day Simple Moving Average, TON bounced back strongly, increasing by nearly 10% on Tuesday and reaching $5.81. The price dipped slightly on Wednesday, dropping to $5.43, but regained momentum on Thursday. On this day, TON experienced a significant surge of approximately 15.24%, propelling it above $6 and ending the day at $6.26. One key factor contributing to TON’s exceptional performance on Thursday was the official confirmation of its listing on Binance, the popular cryptocurrency exchange platform.
On Friday, TON experienced a bullish surge, climbing by 5.39% to surpass its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and reach $6.60. Yet, the bullish momentum waned over the weekend, with TON only gaining 1.35% on Saturday before sellers came into play on Sunday. The bearish sentiment took hold, causing TON to plummet by approximately 7% on Sunday, settling at $6.20. Today, sellers aimed to push TON below the $6 mark, but as the price dipped to $6.08, demand resurged. Currently, TON is up by 1.24%, trading at $6.28.
Dogwifhat (WIF) Price Analysis
In the last 24 hours, Dogecoin (WIF) experienced a significant decrease of nearly 8%. This drop began over the weekend, following a surge of over 19% on Thursday that saw WIF reach $1.91. Many had anticipated WIF to break the $2 barrier, but active selling pressure caused it to dip to $1.82 on Friday, losing almost 5%. The price continued to fall on Saturday, experiencing minor and major declines to reach $1.62. However, in today’s trading session, WIF has rebounded by 5.33%, currently trading at $1.71.
Earlier, it was noted that there’s opposition to WIF at approximately $2. If buying pressure continues, it’s possible that investors may challenge this price point again. But if the market mood shifts negatively, WIF might drop below $1.50.
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2024-08-12 14:12