As a seasoned cryptocurrency analyst with years of experience navigating the volatile digital asset landscape, I find myself constantly intrigued by the dynamic dance between bulls and bears that shapes the market. This week, I have been particularly captivated by the performance of TAO, Uniswap (UNI), and FET.
Initially, Bitcoin (BTC) touched a high of approximately $58,000 during today’s trading, but the increased demand for selling caused its price to drop back below $57,000. The leading cryptocurrency struggles to break through higher prices, which has resulted in a slowdown for the bullish sentiment.
Concerns are rising among analysts that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market might be heading into a bear phase because it hasn’t managed to surpass the $60,000 mark and reach its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This skepticism arises due to recent gains in Bitcoin. Moreover, there’s been an increase in exchange inflows, which often indicates that investors are cashing out their profits. To make matters worse, Bitcoin usually underperforms in September, contributing to the market’s unease.
September Blues For BTC
Currently, the general feeling about the market is cautious or negative (bearish), as shown by the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index being 33. This suggests investors expect price drops in September. A recent analysis from NYDIG’s market report hints that Bitcoin and the crypto market may experience a prolonged period of low activity (seasonal slog) over the next month. The report also mentioned this possible trend further.
So far this September, Bitcoin’s average decline stands at 5.9%, and the middle value (median) is a drop of 6.0%. This isn’t particularly encouraging news since we’re only halfway through September.
Experts predict that the present market mood might shift by the month’s end, potentially setting Bitcoin up for three consecutive months of growth in Q4 of this year. A recent increase in inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges is one sign of the current downward trend. According to CryptoQuant, exchange inflows spiked to 18,193 BTC on September 9, a substantial rise from the 2,535 BTC recorded the day before. This surge in inflows occurred concurrently with a Bitcoin price recovery, hinting at profit-taking and suggesting that investors expect a bearish market and are trying to minimize their losses. Additionally, trading activity has remained relatively low due to this bearish outlook.
Exchange Volumes Reflect Reduced Trading Appetite
As a researcher studying the crypto market, I’ve noticed a significant drop in trading activity over the past three months, as indicated by data from Glassnode. This decrease in activity suggests that traders are still hesitant about short-term prospects. The report published by Glassnode highlights a reduction in investor interaction with centralized exchanges, with trading volumes shrinking across the board. Centralized exchanges play a crucial role in speculative activities and price discovery within the crypto market. To understand the level of investor activity, Glassnode analyzed the on-chain volumes of these centralized exchanges.
I’ve noticed a decrease in investor interest and reduced speculative activity within the current bitcoin price range, which is reflective of the bitcoin exchange volume trend.
Altcoins Remain Strong Despite BTC Downturn
In the meantime, while Bitcoin (BTC) has been facing challenges recently, altcoins have shown resilience. This could indicate that investors are adapting their investment strategies to protect their assets during uncertain market conditions, as suggested by analysts from various platforms like Bitfinex.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed a subtle but significant shift in the market. This hints at a possible transition, where investors are starting to seek worth in altcoins instead of the usual trend of gravitating towards Bitcoin during tough times. The altcoin sector, surprisingly, has demonstrated robustness and resilience amidst this change.
Analysts noted that as Bitcoin’s price decreased, so did its market share by 1.3%. On the other hand, the value of cryptocurrencies not in the top ten grew by 4.4%. Furthermore, the open interest for altcoins fell 55% from its highest point, according to Bitfinex analysts, indicating a lack of enthusiasm among speculators and possible seller exhaustion.
Recently, alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) have demonstrated resilience during market corrections and a strong rebound with low Open Interest, indicating their robustness. It’s highly probable that these select altcoins will surpass Bitcoin in performance, whether the trend is downward or upward. We are approaching the parabolic phase for altcoins in this cycle, and it could happen quite soon.
Can Upcoming CPI Data Flip Momentum?
Currently, traders are closely watching the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures set to be released on Wednesday. They anticipate that the August CPI rate will decrease to 26%, down from the 29% recorded in July. A favorable inflation reading would bolster the Federal Reserve’s argument for reducing interest rates in the coming week. US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, emphasized the significance and prediction of rate reductions, stating that the economy is robust and on track for recovery.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin ETFs have been experiencing withdrawals, causing the cryptocurrency to fall below $57,000 after briefly reaching $58,000 earlier. Despite some signs of recovery in Bitcoin, traders are offloading during market rallies, and there’s a lack of strong factors driving a substantial surge. However, historically, October has been a favorable month for cryptocurrencies, with nine out of the last eleven Octobers recording positive returns, averaging nearly 23%. The broader crypto market also showed early gains but has since slipped back into negative territory, registering losses ranging from 1% to 2%.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to surpass the significant resistance level at around $58,000 since early September, following a nearly 3% decrease that took its price down to $57,398 on September 1st. Since then, buyers have made repeated efforts to regain and hold above $58,000, with the ultimate goal of reaching $60,000, but these attempts have been thwarted by substantial selling pressure that has caused their momentum to falter.
Over the weekend, market participants resumed their activity with Bitcoin experiencing a slight uptick of 0.18% on Saturday and a more substantial gain of 1.25% on Sunday, concluding the period at approximately $54,978. Optimism remained high on Monday as Bitcoin surpassed $55,000 following an almost 4% rise, reaching $57,079. Attempts to push the price above $58,000 were unsuccessful due to intense selling pressure. On Tuesday, Bitcoin saw a minor increase of over 1%, touching $57,662. Again, efforts to reach $58,000 failed, causing Bitcoin to slip back into negative territory during the current trading session. Currently, Bitcoin is nearly 2% lower, trading at around $56,573.
Market participants are attempting to force Bitcoin’s price below $55,000 again, but investors are anticipated to hold this point steady and halt any additional decline. If this point is breached, Bitcoin may drop to around $52,000. At present, buyers aren’t showing much interest in higher levels, which is why every attempt to push the price above $58,000 is failing. A successful push above $58,000 could encourage buyers to aim for the $60,000 mark, but they need a significant event or factor to ignite consistent upward movement.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
During the current trading session, Ethereum (ETH) failed in its attempt to surpass $2,400 as sellers outnumbered buyers near the resistance level. ETH has been experiencing difficulties and dropped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and $2,600 at the end of August. Previous attempts to regain this level also proved unsuccessful, with sellers aggressively guarding it along with the 20-day SMA serving as a significant barrier. The bearish trend became stronger last week, leading ETH to fall below $2,200 on Friday and reach a low of $2,150 before slightly rebounding to settle above $2,200.
ETH recovered over the weekend as buyers entered the market at lower levels, registering an increase of 2.21% on Saturday and 1% on Sunday to settle at $2,298. It reclaimed the $2,300 level on Monday after a 2.71% increase, pushing it to $2,360. Sellers attempted to drive ETH back below $2,300 on Tuesday, but buyers countered the selling pressure and registered an increase of 1.24% to move to $2,389. Any hopes for a push above $2,400 were dashed during the ongoing session as buyers took over. As a result, ETH is down over 2%, trading at $2.338.
If Ethereum (ETH) falls to around $2,300, there are buyers who will strive to keep its price above that point, even with the resistance they might face. However, if it does fall below this level, the next support can be found at approximately $2,100. These buyers aim to stabilize ETH’s price above $2,300 and wait for a chance to push it past $2,400. If successful, this could potentially open the way for $2,500.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) fell short of the $140 mark as the price fell back in the red during the current session as buyers lost steam after pushing above $135. SOL has been extremely bearish in recent sessions and dropped to an intra-day low of $120 on Friday as selling pressure peaked. However, buyers pushed the price to $125 as SOL ended the day down by 3.38%. SOL recovered along with the rest of the markets over the weekend, registering a 2.16% increase on Saturday and a 1.84% increase on Sunday to reclaim $130.
On Monday, a positive outlook continued for SOL, which climbed nearly 4% to reach $135, a significant resistance point. The following day saw intense fluctuations in SOL’s price due to a battle between buyers and sellers. Buyers aimed to maintain their upward trend and approach the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and $140. Meanwhile, sellers sought to push the price below $135. Despite both efforts, neither was successful in making substantial progress, leading to minimal gains for SOL. Unfortunately, during the current trading session, buyers appeared to lose momentum above $135, allowing sellers to seize control and drive SOL down by 2.39%, hovering around the $132 level.
If Solana (SOL) falls below $130, it indicates that sellers are in control and they might drive the price down to approximately $120 before any potential recovery. If SOL manages to regain strength and surpass $135 once more, there could be another effort to overpower the bears (who are bearish on the market) around $140. If SOL exceeds this level, $150 might be our next target.
Polkadot (DOT) Price Analysis
After hitting a roadblock at its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), Polkadot (DOT) has been experiencing a downward trend, with sellers overpowering buyers and driving the price lower. Initially trading below since August 25, DOT dipped beneath $4 on Friday, reaching an intraday low of $3.82. However, as the token approached its long-standing support level of $3.62, demand increased, allowing it to regain some ground and close at $3.96. On Saturday, DOT regained the $4 mark due to renewed interest, rising by 3.28% to settle at $4.09.
On Sunday, DOT experienced a 1.96% climb, reaching $4.17. As the new week started, buyers kept control and pushed DOT up by 2.88%, making it reach $4.29. However, as the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) served as a resistance point, buying power waned, causing DOT to decline on Tuesday, dropping by 0.93%. The current session has seen DOT continue its downward trend and it’s now nearly 3% lower, trading at $4.13. Demand for DOT remains strong at lower prices, but is diminishing at higher ones, resulting in a loss of momentum for buyers. For the time being, buyers should prevent DOT from dropping below $4. If DOT recovers, it could challenge the 20-day SMA again. A break above this level might lead to a move towards $4.50.
Optimism (OP) Price Analysis
Optimism (OP) has seen a notable surge of nearly 17% over the past week, primarily due to a robust recovery following a dip to $1.29 on Friday. For some time, OP had been battling to surpass its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but this situation altered in recent trading sessions as investors re-entered the market over the weekend. This renewed interest allowed OP to break above significant moving averages and the $1.60 mark. After a bearish close on Friday, OP experienced a substantial increase of 6.04%, reaching $1.41 on Saturday. On Sunday, buyers made attempts to exceed both the 20 and 50-day SMAs, but sellers managed to counteract and push OP down to $1.42 following a daily high of $1.47. However, this resulted in only a minimal gain for OP overall.
Positive sentiment picked up on Monday as OP surged almost 8% to move above the 20 and 50-day SMAs and settle at $1.53. The price continued to increase on Tuesday, claiming the $1.60 level and rising to $1.61 after an increase of 5.46%. However, sellers were able to retake control during the ongoing session. Currently, OP is down by almost 3% and trading around the $1.56 mark. Sellers will attempt to push OP back below the moving averages toward $1.40. On the other hand, buyers will look to reclaim the $1.60 level.
Bittensor (TAO) Price Analysis
Bittensor Token (TAO) experienced a rise of more than 8%, fueled by a robust rally on Monday that allowed it to regain the $250 mark and surpass a significant resistance point. Similar to other cryptocurrencies, TAO has displayed bearish tendencies since late August and reached its lowest point for the day at $220, falling below the $240 support level. However, the price made a robust recovery over the weekend, peaking at $246 before being pushed down to $235 due to selling pressure. Despite this downward push, TAO still saw an uptick of 1.60%. The bulls maintained control of the market on Sunday, pushing the price up by 4.66% to $246.
This week kicked off with a remarkable spike as TAO saw a 12.47% increase, soaring over $250 and reaching $276. It’s now close to breaking through the resistance at $280 and approaching both its 20 and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). On Tuesday, TAO climbed further but encountered increased selling activity. Nevertheless, it managed to surpass $280 and the moving averages, settling at $287. The intense selling pressure at these levels has caused TAO to slide back into negative territory today, losing nearly 4% and trading around $275. If buyers reassert control, TAO might try to surpass $300. However, if selling pressure continues, the price could fall back to $250.
Uniswap (UNI) Price Analysis
From my analysis perspective, Uniswap (UNI) has been on an uptrend since it bounced off its support level on September 1st. The upward momentum propelled UNI to surpass the $6 mark and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which previously served as a formidable resistance level. However, last week’s market downturn exerted substantial bearish pressure on UNI, causing it to drop below the 20-day SMA, reaching a daily low of $5.88 before reclaiming the $6 price point. The price rallied back on Saturday following nearly a 4% surge in UNI, moving above the 20-day SMA and closing at $6.43. Attempts by sellers to push UNI below the 20-day moving average were unsuccessful, with the price settling at $6.32 instead.
This week started with UNI recovering from its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), recording a 6.51% surge that took it over the 50-day SMA and settling at $6.73. Despite a strong resistance at $6.75, UNI faced heavy selling pressure, causing the price to dip to a low of $6.50. However, it bounced back from the 50-day SMA, ultimately experiencing a decrease of just 0.48%. Currently, buyers are in charge and have successfully prevented sellers from pushing UNI below the 50-day SMA. As of now, UNI is nearly 1% up, trading at $6.76, aiming to break through the resistance and move towards $7.
FET Price Analysis
Over the weekend, AI-related coins showed impressive growth, and FET followed suit, bouncing back after a challenging week that nearly drove its value under $1 on Friday due to intense selling. On Saturday, sellers tried to further decrease the price, but as demand grew at lower levels, buyers stepped in to prevent a significant drop; FET only saw a slight decline instead. With robust support at $1 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average acting as a key level of support, FET rebounded on Sunday, rising by 3.18% to reach $1.09. The coin continued its upward trend on Monday, nearly hitting a 10% increase that propelled it above the 20-day SMA and settling at $1.20.
On Tuesday, FET experienced an even more substantial rise of 11.06%, pushing its value over $1.30 and stabilizing at that level. However, buyers’ efforts to push it above $1.35 were thwarted. Sellers are currently active at $1.35, causing a 2% drop in FET during the current trading session as they aim to drive the price below $1.30.
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2024-09-11 13:31