So, the European Central Bank, they decided to cut interest rates again. Big surprise, right? They knocked 25 basis points off, from 2.25% to 2.0%. Meanwhile, the U.S.? They’re just sitting there, doing nothing. Nada. Zilch.
Polymarket, Kalshi, CME Futures Bet the Fed Won’t Budge—Trump Fumes 🤦♂️
This is the eighth time since June 2024 that the ECB has gone, “Hey, let’s lower rates,” and now euro borrowing costs are back to those good ol’ 2022 levels. What’s the reasoning? Trump-era trade tensions, inflation cooling off, and a bunch of other economic ‘joys’—you know, sluggish growth, investment’s on pause, the usual happy nightmare.
The timing couldn’t be better—just as President Donald Trump, in his usual calm and collected manner, is blasting the Fed and Jerome Powell all over Truth Social, calling him “Too Late Powell” and demanding lower rates. Because, sure, that’ll solve everything. Traders, meanwhile, aren’t buying it—they’re not exactly racing to bet the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. Big shocker.
Prediction markets and CME futures? They’re pretty much petulant children—leaning 97% towards the Fed doing nothing. The current Federal Funds Rate? A cozy 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed’s been playing hard to get since December 2024. Oh, the suspense!
Polymarket folks? They’ve put over 30 million dollars on the line, betting 97% that the Fed will keep their hands in their pockets. A brave 3% still hope the Fed will cut just a little. Dreamers, I tell ya.
Kalshi is right there with, “Yeah, the rate’s staying put,” with 95% of their bettors thinking the same. As of today, CME’s Fedwatch? Also rocks the same story—nothing’s changing here folks, just like that stubborn uncle at Thanksgiving who refuses to leave.
So what does it all mean? Europe easing up while the U.S. clings to the status quo? It’s like they’re on different planets—federal policies pulling in opposite directions, maybe causing a global rate soap opera. But hey, who cares about clarity, right? Just a bunch of numbers and guesses. The next move? Who knows—probably more noise, less action. Typical.
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2025-06-05 17:57