As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for spotting market trends and a penchant for Fibonacci retracements, I find myself both exhilarated and cautiously optimistic about the current state of Bitcoin (BTC). The recent inflow of $827M into Spot Bitcoin ETFs has pushed BTC to within a hair’s breadth of its all-time high. While the price has since pulled back, I can’t help but feel that this could be the last significant surge before BTC breaks that elusive barrier.
On Tuesday, an enormous flow of approximately $827 million into Spot Bitcoin ETFs significantly contributed to Bitcoin’s near-record high of $73,800. Since then, the price has dipped slightly and stabilized around $72,000. Will the Bitcoin price surge past this significant milestone, or is a dip expected beforehand?
Third-largest Spot Bitcoin ETF inflow day
On Tuesday, the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs bought approximately 11,820 BTC, marking the third largest single day purchase since these ETFs were launched in early January this year. The record for the largest single day inflow, equivalent to $1.04 billion, was set just before Bitcoin’s all-time high in March.
Over the past twelve days, there’s been a continuous surge in Bitcoin purchases, with only a single day showing a minor withdrawal, accumulating over $4 billion into Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
Maintaining this rate of purchase suggests that Bitcoin might reach its record peak sooner rather than later, possibly initiating an upward trend, which could be the start of a highly escalating phase in its market rally.
Trump favourite as U.S. election reaches fever-pitch
As the U.S. elections approach their final stretch with just five days remaining, the latest reports suggest that Donald Trump is gaining favor among voters, even in traditional polls. The most recent polling data up to October 28 shows Trump leading in all key swing states, except Nevada where Kamala Harris holds a narrow advantage.
In simple terms, Polymarket, the largest international prediction market, currently predicts Donald Trump leading in all key battleground states, and Michigan is the state where his lead is narrowest. The overall bets placed on this outcome show a strong preference for Trump, with approximately 67% of the wagers going to him compared to Joe Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris, who has 33.1%.
As the election day on November 5 approaches, it’s anticipated that there could be significant fluctuations in the crypto market due to potential changes in the U.S. administration’s stance towards cryptocurrencies. While a Trump victory might suggest a more favorable U.S. government attitude towards digital currencies, some argue that even if Harris takes office, this isn’t necessarily detrimental to Bitcoin.
Last $BTC surge, or healthier retracement to come?
Over the immediate period, it’s quite evident that the Bitcoin price nearly reached a brand-new record peak. Only a few hundred dollars stood between the highest point on Tuesday and the previous high achieved in March.
It’s uncertain if further significant purchases from U.S. ETFs will push Bitcoin ($BTC) past its threshold, or if the current bullish investors may temporarily step back, allowing the price to drop before resuming its rise.
Since the short-term momentum indicators are now dropping after reaching their peaks, there’s a possibility that a pullback may occur first. As you can see in the chart, the price has returned to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. A rise from here would be very bullish, but a more balanced correction might let the bears push the price down to the 0.382 Fibonacci level, or ideally, even further to the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels. If an uptick happens from these points, it would still be within the bull flag and a normal retracement range.
Monthly candle close could trigger new price structure base for $BTC
Looking at the monthly viewpoint offers a broad perspective on the Bitcoin price, providing hints about its potential direction in the upcoming months.
It appears that the pattern formed over the past seven months (bull flag) has been constructed above the structure of the 2021-2022 bull market. If a new monthly candle opens at a price higher than $71,270, it could initiate a fresh structure on top of this horizontal level. Given that Thursday is the last day of the current month, where the candle finishes will be decisive.
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2024-10-30 16:10