As a seasoned researcher with a background in political science and a keen interest in blockchain technology, I find myself intrigued by this unique intersection of politics and cryptocurrency, as exemplified by the Polymarket platform. The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be a rollercoaster ride, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump now tied at 49% odds.
In the latest update from Polymarket, the premier cryptocurrency prediction platform, there’s a tie between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, both standing at 49% probability. This exciting turn of events unfolds in a fierce competition where over half a billion dollars have been staked.
The change occurred after Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential nominee, which is quite unexpected given that many expected Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
In a recent development, the odds for Harris have risen significantly, now standing equal to those of Trump and his partner, J. D. Vance. This shift occurred after they both campaigned together in Michigan with Harris and Walz.
The chances of Biden winning have dropped significantly to 7% because he has contracted COVID-19 and there are concerns about his possible withdrawal from the race. Prediction markets like Polymarket, which operates on Polygon, a scaling solution for Ethereum, provide up-to-date political sentiment data in real time instead of relying on polls.
The chances of Polymarket can quickly change with newsworthy developments, like the assassination attempt on Trump. However, Harris’s choice between Walz and Shapiro demonstrates that some events might elude prediction markets.
The heightened curiosity surrounding the 2024 election has led traders to reach unprecedented monthly trading volumes of $1 billion on Polymarket for the first time, with July specifically recording a whopping $343 million. This figure is significantly higher than the June total and represents an impressive increase of 440% compared to just $63 million in May 2024.
Although it’s gaining traction, Polymarket faces challenges in earning income. The U.S. Congress has voiced proposals to prohibit betting on elections due to fears that substantial bets might compromise democratic values.
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2024-08-08 10:28