Newly Discovered Asteroid the Size of a Football Field Could Hit Earth in 2032 (But Probably Not)

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A team of global astronomers has recently identified an asteroid that could potentially collide with Earth. This asteroid, named 2024 YR4, was first spotted on December 27, 2024, and currently holds the highest probability of impact among all known celestial bodies. However, this likelihood may alter in the future.

The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile spotted an object. So far, details are still being gathered, but we know that 2024 YR4 is approximately between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide. There’s a greater than 1% likelihood it could collide with our planet in 2032. Currently, it leads the pack as one of the most potentially hazardous celestial bodies in the sky.

For More on Asteroids

Mankind’s Endeavor to Secure Its Safety from Asteroids: The Science Behind Deep Impact – An Asteroid Was Detected Merely Hours Before It Harmlessly Collided with the Earth – Impacts of Asteroids on Ancient Earth Could Have Scorched Oceans and Potentially Triggered the Origin of Life

the importance of asteroid research (Humanity’s Mission), an example of a detected asteroid impact on Earth (Asteroid Spotted Just Hours Before It Strikingly Struck the Earth), and the potential role of asteroids in kickstarting life (Might Have Kickstarted Life).

The most dangerous asteroid in space, 2024 YR4

The 2008 original film on SYFY, titled “Rock Monster,” presents a youth armed with magical swords and a lethal stone-made creature as its main characters. After being dormant for 800 years, the titular rock monster stirs, leaving destruction in its wake across the land. In our world, astronomers have stumbled upon their own version of a rock monster, not through enchanted swords but by using telescopes.

Following the detection, astronomers began figuring out the asteroid’s trajectory to assess its potential threat level. Based on preliminary data, they estimated a collision chance of approximately 1.2% or about 1 in 80. As more data is gathered, they will refine the orbit and adjust the predicted impact probability accordingly.

When a new object is found with limited initial data, it’s challenging to precisely predict its future trajectory because we don’t have a specific path but rather a range of possible orbits. This is similar to tossing a ball without watching where it lands – you know the general direction, but the exact landing spot remains uncertain. In this case, astronomers map out all potential paths for the object 2024 YR4 based on available data, and some of these paths may intersect with our planet’s position on December 22, 2032.

Since its initial discovery, astronomers have consistently monitored the asteroid, collecting valuable data points for orbital calculations. As these calculations become more precise due to the narrowing orbit, the potential threat area will significantly decrease, giving us a clearer understanding of whether our planet is indeed in danger. Generally speaking, further observations often reveal that the asteroid poses no imminent danger; however, we are still uncertain about this particular one.

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Sometimes, extra observations lead to a short-term rise in the likelihood of an impact event occurring. This is because as the possible impact area decreases, a larger portion of space can potentially contain the Earth. For a clearer understanding, take a look at the video above. As this area continues to decrease, it’s likely to move further away from the Earth. Interestingly, the likelihood sometimes rises before falling back to zero. This is exactly what has happened with 2024 YR4 so far. Currently, the likelihood of an impact stands at approximately 1.6%, or 1 in 62, according to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the European Space Agency (ESA), and other organizations.

The risk level of an asteroid is determined using the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which rates asteroids from 0 to 10. Factors like impact likelihood and potential destruction scale are considered for classification. Asteroids are grouped as No Risk (0), Common (1), Worthy of Astronomer’s Attention (2-4), Potentially Dangerous (5-7), and Likely Collisions (8-10). Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 is categorized at level 3 due to its probability and size. But, astronomers anticipate it will move down to the No Risk category with further observations.

Astronomers intend to keep monitoring the celestial body known as 2024 YR4 until April 2025, after which it will become too distant and dim for us on Earth to spot. Interestingly, its orbit lasts about four years, bringing it back into view in June of 2028, giving astronomers another opportunity to observe it. However, there’s a potential catch: this object is expected to make a return in 2032 that could pose a risk.

Should the asteroid collide in 2032, its potential impact path would span significant parts of our planet. It may follow a trajectory crossing over the Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, and South Asia. Asteroids similar in size strike Earth approximately every few thousand years, but it’s only recently that we’ve developed the means to detect these objects and potentially divert them from hitting us. It’s important to mention that 2024 YR4 isn’t likely to destroy the entire planet, but a local catastrophe would occur, with destructive effects radiating up to 30 miles from the impact site.

It’s highly likely that the year 2024 (YR4) will smoothly pass by us, much like numerous other asteroids in the past. For an exciting encounter with a “rock of doom”, it would be more fruitful to visit a movie theater instead.

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2025-02-05 00:17