As a seasoned gamer who has navigated through countless rounds of Monopoly and chess matches, I can’t help but see John Malone’s moves as a grand strategy game unfolding right before our eyes. With over 4 decades of experience under his belt, he’s proven himself to be the ultimate player in this high-stakes game of corporate deals and acquisitions.
What’s the latest with John Malone? There’s been talk on Wall Street and in Hollywood once more, as his recent shifts in investment suggest a new move from this media tycoon.
His talent for remaining low-key until a business opportunity arises has earned him the nickname “the swamp alligator.” Now, at the age of 83, it seems appropriate for him to make things clearer, more straightforward, and more efficient in terms of ownership shares, and resolve any outstanding issues. This becomes even more crucial with the incoming Trump administration predicted to eliminate regulatory obstacles, leading to a potentially turbulent era of M&A and deal-making within Hollywood.
This week, Malone is anticipated to give some hints about his future plans: He’s scheduled to attend the Paley International Council Summit on November 12, and on November 14, he will speak at Liberty Media’s annual investor gathering, which usually attracts a large audience from Wall Street in New York.
2019 marked the year he disposed of his final shares in Lionsgate. In 2021, as a significant Discovery shareholder, he consented to the massive merger that formed Warner Bros. Discovery, which was concluded in April 2022 after AT&T divested WarnerMedia assets under the supervision of David Zaslav, the head of Discovery. In July 2023, Liberty Media finalized the separation of Atlanta Braves Holdings, and later this summer, Malone relinquished proxy rights to vote his substantial stake to Braves chairman and CEO Terry McGuirk. Several months passed, and in August, Liberty announced a proposed merger between its Liberty SiriusXM tracking stock and satellite radio giant Sirius XM, which was finalized in September.
However, at the heart of some outstanding matters could potentially be Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which has yet to fulfill its commitment to investors as a standalone entertainment studio. During a post-earnings analyst call on November 7, Zaslav hinted at the possibility of future mergers in a preliminary test balloon. Given that Malone is both a shareholder and board member of WBD, he might influence the balance. In the past, Malone has referred to smaller to mid-sized media companies as “free radicals,” suggesting they seek consolidation to achieve scale. However, opinions vary among experts on whether WBD will act as a buyer or seller due to its current debt burden.
Towards the end of 2023, analyst Michael Morris from Guggenheim Securities proposed in a report that Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) might consider purchasing a business that already has an NFL broadcasting agreement. Fox or Paramount Group were identified as the most probable candidates for such a takeover. In fact, it was revealed through a regulatory filing in early November that Warner had discussed a potential merger with Paramount Global, but this plan was altered when David Ellison and Skydance Media finalized their acquisition of Shari Redstone’s media empire instead.
According to Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeff Wlodarczak, he doesn’t believe that Malone will make a quick move on this matter. However, it appears that Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is destined either to be sold or dismantled in the long run,” says Jeff Wlodarczak.
Regarding potential separation, Robert Routh, an analyst at FBN Securities, suggests that Malone might advocate for making DC Comics public on its own. He proposes this could happen through either a tracking stock or traditional IPO, since this approach would best showcase the worth of Warner Bros. Discovery‘s library.
Or there’s CNN, which Bank of America suggested in a July report could fetch about $6 billion on the market. Or Warner Games, home to Hogwarts Legacy, could be spun off for around $5.6 billion. Less valuable: the linear TV brands like TNT, TBS that have been a drag on the company’s earnings in recent years.
Analyst Craig Moffett indicated in a research note, after speaking with Malone, that Malone thinks selling or splitting off parts of WBD might not be appealing but a tracking stock for certain aspects could be. Malone explained that financially, there could be an argument for a tracking stock containing the linear business, which would then create a growth and cash-generating side. This setup would allow them to assign a significant amount of debt to the cash-generating side, potentially attracting private equity. In this way, they could separate the studio and growing parts of the business, which might receive a higher valuation, according to Moffett’s suggestion.
Apart from Warner Media, Malone is considering a potential fusion between Charter Communications, the second-largest U.S. cable service provider, and his Liberty Broadband. This company holds a substantial share in the cable titan, alongside GCI, Alaska’s primary communications service provider. On September 23rd, Liberty Broadband revealed that Charter had submitted an initial merger offer, to which they responded with their own proposal.
Notably, the all-stock transaction is designed to be exempt from taxation, Liberty highlighted. In fact, throughout his business career, Malone has been known for structuring deals in ways that minimize tax obligations, as per an age-old adage which claims that only death and taxes are certain.
As a long-time gamer, I’ve come to understand Malone’s recent moves as strategic maneuvers, much like playing checkers. I position my pieces carefully and wait for the perfect moment to strike a deal that benefits me most. Routh puts it well when he says, “I believe he’s not just growing his empire but also simplifying it as he matures, given its immense value and the complexity that comes with it.
Malone is likely to concentrate on completing the Charter deal in the short term, and experts believe a structure that benefits both parties will be reached. This strategy could expand his possibilities for other deals. Routh pointed out that such a move would simplify the current entity with five classes of stock into one with a single class, making it more straightforward for another company to acquire.
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2024-11-11 17:55