Predicted ticket sales for the upcoming Marvel film, Thunderbolts, are generating interest, but it could break records in a unique fashion that defines Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) standards. The current forecast suggests an impressive debut for any other franchise, yet within the MCU, it would place lower in the rankings. As one of the concluding films in Phase 5, Thunderbolts serves as a follow-up to Black Widow and Disney+ series, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. Fans have been enthusiastic about the creative promotional strategies, such as an entertaining Super Bowl commercial and a witty trailer styled after A24’s “pure cinema” approach. With just five weeks until its release, what can we expect in terms of box office performance?
Based on BoxOfficeTheory’s predictions, Thunderbolts* is projected to earn between $67 million and $82 million in its opening weekend. It’s important to note that tickets for the film have not gone on sale yet. If these estimates hold true, even at the higher end, Thunderbolts* may trail behind Captain America: Brave New World. However, if it falls anywhere within this range, it will align with Phase 4 COVID-19 releases of the MCU such as Eternals ($71 million), Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million), and Black Widow ($80 million).
According to preliminary predictions, Thunderbolts* could rank as Marvel Studios’ 27th highest opening weekend ever. At first glance, this might seem underwhelming; however, it’s important to remember that the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has produced 19 films with openings above $100 million, and five of those have even surpassed the $200 million mark. The most recent example is Avengers: Endgame, which made over $300 million on its opening weekend. Given that last year’s summer kick-off was less successful with The Fall Guy opening to just $27.7 million during the first weekend of May, Thunderbolts* is expected to deliver a significant comeback. Furthermore, its projected opening weekend earnings would outshine every installment in the Mission: Impossible franchise, half of the Fast & Furious movies, and all DC Extended Universe films released after Justice League.
‘Thunderbolts*’ Could See an ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Boost
Since the record-breaking debut of Spider-Man in 2002, which raked in $100 million over a single weekend and set the stage for summer blockbusters, Marvel Comic adaptations have traditionally launched the summer movie season on the first weekend of May. The upcoming Thunderbolts* will be the eleventh film from the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) to follow this trend. Interestingly, both Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame were initially scheduled for the first weekend of May but were pushed back a week to the last weekend in April to facilitate a simultaneous global release. The films Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars are set to hit cinemas on May 1, 2026, and May 7, 2027, respectively. Here’s a look at how the previous Marvel Comic adaptations that opened during the first weekend of May have performed, and where Thunderbolts* stands in comparison.
| Title | Release Date | Opening Weekend |
| Spider-Man | May 3, 2002 | $114 million |
| X2: X-Men United | May 2, 2003 | $85 million |
| Spider-Man 3 | May 4, 2007 | $151 million |
| Iron Man | May 2, 2008 | $98 million |
| X-Men Origins: Wolverine | May 1, 2009 | $85 million |
| Iron Man 2 | May 7, 2010 | $128 million |
| Thor | May 6, 2011 | $65 million |
| The Avengers | May 4, 2012 | $207 million |
| Iron Man 3 | May 3, 2013 | $174 million |
| The Amazing Spider-Man 2 | May 2, 2014 | $91 million |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | May 1, 2015 | $191 million |
| Captain America: Civil War | May 6, 2016 | $179 million |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. | May 5, 2017 | $146 million |
| Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness | May 6, 2022 | $187 million |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | May 5, 2023 | $118 million |
According to those figures, it’s clear that Thunderbolts* is expected to outshine Thor, but remember, this comparison was made during the initial phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. A significant element that could significantly impact the box office earnings of Thunderbolts* is the anticipation for Avengers: Doomsday. Most of the cast from this film has been confirmed to appear in the Avengers movie, which could generate a lot of excitement similar to what happened with Captain Marvel’s $153 million opening weekend. The hype around Avengers: Endgame is said to have played a significant role in boosting the initial success of Captain Marvel, and a similar effect might occur for Thunderbolts*, as audiences may be eager to explore this team that was so prominently highlighted in the cast announcement.
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2025-03-28 21:34