As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for deciphering political implications, I find myself intrigued by the latest developments in the 2024 presidential race. The recent debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, while enlightening on many fronts, left cryptocurrency enthusiasts like me hanging.
As a crypto enthusiast, I found it surprising that neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump mentioned digital currencies during their debate in Philadelphia on September 10th. This silence seemed to have an impact on the odds of Trump’s potential victory in the 2024 election, as evidenced by a shift in betting trends on Polymarket, where his chances now stand at an even tie.
During the two-hour discussion, topics ranged from economic strategies, views on abortion, immigration, and foreign affairs. Trump’s potential victory probability dropped by approximately 3% on Polymarket, placing him at a 49% likelihood alongside Harris. This shift may be due to growing uncertainty among bettors about the election outcome.
During the debate, Harris, displaying composure and determination, cut off Trump, who appeared agitated and made multiple factually inaccurate claims, according to PolitiFact.
The results of the debate seem to be influencing the cryptocurrency market. Some analysts predict that if Trump secures the presidency, the price of Bitcoin could surge to $90,000 per coin by year’s end. Trump has pledged to abolish anti-cryptocurrency laws and make the U.S. more welcoming towards cryptocurrencies.
If Harris wins, some predict that the price of Bitcoin might drop to $30,000 due to her unclear stance on cryptocurrencies compared to other candidates.
During the current election period, political action committees that rely on cryptocurrency are actively participating. These committees have accumulated a total of approximately $202 million to finance the elections in 2024; the largest one, Fairshake, has around $177.8 million and has already spent $70.8 million.
According to pre-debate surveys, Harris seems to have a lead over Trump by approximately 2.7%, a gap that may stem more from voter concerns about the economy, inflation, and immigration rather than cryptocurrency.
Now that the debate has concluded, attention will shift towards how the stances of the candidates might evolve, and what potential effects these changes could have on the political and cryptocurrency markets over the coming months.
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2024-09-11 10:12