Trump’s odds on Polymarket surge above Harris, spike to 53%

As an analyst with over two decades of experience in political and financial markets, I have to say that these latest developments are quite intriguing. The sudden surge in Donald Trump’s odds on Polymarket against Kamala Harris, coupled with the significant volume wagered on both candidates, suggests a shift in market sentiment towards Trump.


Donald Trump retakes the lead against Kamala Harris on Polymarket, with odds spiking to 53%.

According to the prediction platform Polymarket, it appears that former U.S. President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris in terms of predictions for the upcoming U.S. elections.

Trump’s probability has increased to 53%, now outranking Harris who previously stood at 54%. However, it is worth noting that this figure is still much lower compared to the high of 72% after the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Texas.

As a researcher examining current political trends, I’ve observed an uptick in Donald Trump’s projected odds for victory in the 2024 presidential race. This surge can be attributed to recent criticisms towards Vice President Kamala Harris’s perceived reserved stance on the cryptocurrency sector. At this moment, Trump stands at a 53% probability of winning, while Harris trails slightly behind with a 46% likelihood.

It’s worth noting that Lookonchain highlighted a user who joined Polymarket on August 19th and subsequently withdrew approximately $205,000 worth of USD Coin (USDC) from Binance.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the likelihood of Trump winning the U.S. Presidential Election has increased to 53%, surpassing Harris. Just three days ago, a new user signed up on Polymarket and moved $205,000 from Binance to purchase 417,252 ‘Yes’ shares for Trump in the election. This individual now holds these shares, which have yet to be cashed out and realized… (or “have an unrealized profit/loss”, depending on the current market price)

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 22, 2024

As a researcher, I’ve just invested 417,252 “Yes” shares, supporting Trump’s election win, using my funds. With the surge in Trump’s chances, this move has left me with an exciting, untouched profit of $15,000 on my books. Now, it appears that over $85 million worth of bets have been placed on Trump’s potential victory compared to Harris’s $77.5 million. It’s interesting to note that the volume of wagers for both candidates is steadily growing in Polymarket.

Harris attracts criticism

Remember, Harris’s early advantage was strengthened significantly due to efforts made by her team to attract the cryptocurrency sector more closely. This included the Crypto4Harris campaign and a recent gathering where crucial discussions about cryptocurrencies took place.

Lately, some advancements have led people to ponder whether Democrats are committed to enhancing the cryptocurrency regulatory environment in the United States. For example, the absence of any direct reference to cryptocurrency in the Democratic National Committee’s 2024 platform has raised eyebrows and fueled speculation.

❗️UPDATE: On the first day of the Democratic National Convention, the party platform has been unveiled without any references to blockchain technology, Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, or anything related to the world of crypto. Nick Niel, what is your take on this situation?

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) August 19, 2024

Furthermore, it was announced that the Kamala Harris campaign plans to support a 44.6% tax on capital gains, which would be the highest such rate ever implemented in the United States. This decision has drawn criticism from notable figures within the cryptocurrency sector.

As a seasoned investor with years of experience, I feel compelled to share some insights about Kamala Harris’ recent proposal to increase long-term capital gains tax to 44.6%. If you or anyone you know owns stocks or crypto and supports her candidacy, I urge you to consider the potential impact on your financial future.

— Matt Wallace (@MattWallace888) August 20, 2024

According to Bloomberg, an aide of the Democratic candidate Harris disclosed that she intends to back policies aimed at expanding the cryptocurrency sector. In reaction, Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, showed signs of doubt.

It seems there’s no clear plan or action being discussed. Is Gary going to be dismissed? Could you elaborate on the bills or laws you support? What are your plans for executive orders? Given your position as president, why haven’t you implemented changes immediately instead of just talking about it? I fear there’s zero trust without concrete actions to back up the words.

— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) August 21, 2024

Harris has been criticized for not being more vocal in support of the crypto industry, particularly since former President Donald Trump has adopted a pro-cryptocurrency stance. Trump’s platform encompasses commitments to prevent the issuance of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and potentially halt the government from offloading its Bitcoin investments.

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2024-08-22 13:06