Turns Out Earth Is Safe from Asteroid 2024 YR4, but What About the Moon?

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Towards the end of last year, an asteroid that had just been found created quite a commotion because early assessments suggested a probability over 1% that it might hit Earth in 2032. This moderately-sized asteroid, referred to as 2024 YR4, comes relatively close to Earth roughly every four years, and each encounter presents the possibility of a collision. Since astronomers knew it would make a safe passage in 2028, the exact location it would be in four years was uncertain.

Initially, it seemed as if we were preparing for a celestial battle reminiscent of an “Asteroid vs Earth” (currently streaming on Peacock). However, subsequent observations, including fresh images from the James Webb Space T telescope (JWST), have provided a clearer understanding of its trajectory. Now, it’s been established that the asteroid 2024 YR4 poses virtually no threat of impacting Earth in the near future.

Nevertheless, some possible trajectories of this asteroid do cross the Moon’s path, implying that we could potentially observe a spectacular lunar impact within the next ten years.

For More on Asteroids

Potential Collision Threat in 2032: The Story of an Asteroid Similar in Size to a Football Field

Sub Exploring Humanity’s Efforts to Deflect Harmful Space Objects – Insights from Deep Impact

Article: An Asteroid, Equivalent to a Football Field in Size, Approaches Earth in 2032 (Likely Miss)

The Science Behind Humanity’s Asteroid Defense Strategy: An Examination of the Deep Impact Mission

Recently Detected Asteroid Barely Avoids Striking Earth – Discussing the Moment of Close Call

What are the odds Asteroid 2024 YR4 will impact the Moon?

According to the latest findings by JWST, it’s estimated that there’s about a 3.8% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 may collide with the Moon in the year 2032.

Simply put, the asteroid is on course and will either hit the Moon or miss it entirely. Its trajectory is unpredictable due to limited data about its movement in space, as small and distant asteroids can be difficult to observe accurately over long periods.

There are several variables in motion here, such as a precise understanding of an asteroid’s current speed and trajectory, potential impacts from other massive bodies (such as Earth), and the effects of sunlight on its surface materials. All these aspects, among others, can shape an asteroid’s journey through space and ultimately determine its destination.

When an asteroid is found, scientists compute all its potential trajectories and identify if any of them collide with Earth (or in this scenario, the Moon). If, say, there are 100 possible paths and one of them hits Earth, it implies a 1% likelihood of impact. After the discovery of 2024 YR4 in the months following 2024, there was a time when the possibility of striking Earth exceeded 3%. During this phase, 2024 YR4 stood out as the most hazardous object in the vicinity of Earth.

JWST snaps photos of asteroid that might strike the Moon

As an eager space enthusiast, I couldn’t help but feel a thrill on March 8th when I learned that the powerful JWST, our species’ most advanced space telescope, was trained toward asteroid 2024 YR4. The Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) of this marvel captured the reflected sunlight from the asteroid, while the onboard Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) gathered thermal light, or heat, emitted by it. What a fascinating glimpse into the cosmos we were afforded that day!

As a space enthusiast, I’ve had the privilege of witnessing something truly remarkable – an elusive speck in the vast expanse of deep space, which turns out to be an asteroid. Though its image was somewhat blurry, it was captured by none other than the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), a tool renowned for peering into the far reaches of the observable universe. This tiny object has now entered the record books as the smallest ever observed by this incredible instrument. The data confirms that this asteroid is approximately 200 feet in diameter, spinning swiftly, and its surface appears to be composed of rocks roughly the size of a human fist. Truly, it’s moments like these that remind us just how small we are in the grand scheme of the cosmos.

Although this specific impactor no longer poses a threat to Earth, there remains a statistically significant probability that it could hit the Moon. Moreover, these observations have provided valuable insights into the behavior of such space rocks and served as a sort of trial run for any other potentially hazardous near-Earth objects we might encounter in the future.

According to updated data from NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at JPL, including new observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and ongoing ground-based studies, the likelihood that asteroid 2024 YR4 will impact the Moon in 2032 has been estimated at 3.8%. If this collision were to occur, it wouldn’t significantly alter the Moon’s orbit or cause long-term issues, but it would certainly make for an impressive celestial event.

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2025-04-04 20:02