As an analyst with over two decades of experience in traditional finance, I find Matthew Sigel’s analysis intriguing and well-grounded. His perspective, rooted in both macroeconomic trends and historical price patterns, presents a compelling case for Bitcoin‘s potential growth.
According to Matthew Sigel, the Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, it’s possible that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a value of $180,000 by the year 2025. This prediction is based on broader economic patterns, the need for protection against inflation, and rising interest among ordinary investors.
On the Coin Stories podcast, Sigel expressed his belief in Bitcoin’s ongoing growth during this bull market, but also pointed out that corporate acceptance has been slow due to technical and regulatory challenges.
Sigel pointed out that established investment firms such as Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch continue to follow inflexible 60-40 asset distribution models, which in turn restricts the incorporation of Bitcoin.
About 8 out of 10 Bitcoin ETF investors currently are individual retail or high-income individuals. However, if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) modifies its accounting rule, SAB 121, which makes it difficult for banks to manage Bitcoin as an asset, then institutions might adopt Bitcoin more quickly. Sigel predicts that this regulatory change may occur in early 2025, possibly making mainstream financial platforms accessible for Bitcoin investments.
As an analyst, I’ve based my prediction of Bitcoin reaching $180,000 on its historical price patterns, specifically focusing on the trends that have emerged over time. Post the April 2024 halving event, I anticipate a period of significant growth in both 2024 and 2025. However, around 2026, there might be a potential correction as market dynamics often fluctuate.
His projection assumes a conservative 1,000% increase from Bitcoin’s $18,000 low during the last bear market—significantly less than previous trough-to-peak gains.
In the future, Sigel anticipates that the value of Bitcoin could potentially reach $450,000 in the next cycle, which would represent about half of gold’s total market capitalization when excluding its use for industrial and jewelry purposes. Over a longer time frame, if central banks worldwide were to incorporate Bitcoin into their reserves with a 2% allocation (compared to gold’s current 18%), he proposes that the price could ascend to $1 million per coin by the year 2050.
In a somewhat unconventional scenario, the idea of the U.S. government exchanging gold reserves for Bitcoin seems improbable. However, Sigel has suggested that Bitcoin miners might contribute to infrastructure projects, especially in initiatives like Trump’s proposed “Freedom Cities”. Furthermore, Sigel endorsed VanEck’s nuclear energy ETF (NLR), emphasizing the growing need for clean energy solutions to bolster Bitcoin mining.
Even though Sigel maintains an optimistic viewpoint, he remains vigilant regarding temporary excitement, emphasizing that the conviction of Bitcoin serving as “digital gold” and a protective measure against economic turbulence in the long run is growing more indisputable by the day.
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2024-12-17 16:23