Key takeaways:
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Adam pointed out that Bitcoin has surged over 50% since Q1, right around the time new tariffs were slapped on like a bad haircut. This performance has solidified Bitcoin’s reputation as a safe haven asset amidst the rising tide of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Analysts like Capital Flows are convinced that the current bull case is rooted in macroeconomic conditions, not just ETF flows. Because who doesn’t love a good economic theory? 📈
Macro tailwinds impact Bitcoin demand
Global macro researcher Capital Flows, a title that sounds like a superhero, noted that the ongoing BTC rally has mirrored a significant rise in credit expansion and a shift in bond market dynamics. Central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have started to cut rates, even as inflation in the eurozone services sector is rising. It’s like trying to bake a cake while the oven is on fire—what could go wrong? 🔥
For instance, 30-year interest rate swaps in Europe have risen, suggesting that everyone is expecting higher growth and inflation. CryptoMoon reported that US long-term Treasury yields have also surged—30-year rates hit 5.15% in May, while the 10-year rate stood at 4.48%. This “bear steepening” of the yield curve usually means the markets are gearing up for a party, not a recession. 🎉
Meanwhile, in Japan, bond market stress is also making an appearance. The 30-year government bond yield recently hit 3.185%, raising eyebrows over Japan’s high debt-to-GDP ratio. With the US debt outlook and ongoing fiscal expansion, investors are starting to wonder if traditional sovereign debt is really the safe bet it used to be. Spoiler alert: it’s not. 😬
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is gaining traction as a non-sovereign, deflationary asset. In the US, easy financial conditions, as captured by the National Financial Conditions Index, have encouraged risk-taking, which is like giving candy to a baby. Rising debt levels and the potential for renewed Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion are further fueling the crypto fire.
Thus, these factors paint a broader macro narrative: Bitcoin is emerging as a hedge not only against inflation and currency debasement but also against the instability of sovereign debt markets. This trend, along with projected $420 billion in investment inflows, might just keep the capital flowing into BTC like a river through the desert. 🌊
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2025-05-30 22:07