So, here we are, folks! Fundstrat’s very own Tom Lee is declaring that we’re in the middle of a “most hated” market rally. I mean, who doesn’t love a good rally that everyone despises? 🙄 Investors are clinging to their reasons for why the market should just take a nosedive. It’s like watching a soap opera, but with more spreadsheets and fewer dramatic pauses.
In his latest update, Lee is all sunshine and rainbows, claiming that the current surge has lifted the S&P 500 by a whopping 17% from its recent lows. It’s like that one friend who shows up to the party after everyone thought they’d ghosted. And guess what? We’re just 3% away from an all-time high! 🎉
“Part of this [bearish sentiment] is understandable,” he says, as if we’re all just supposed to nod along. “We had a black swan event on post-tariff liberation day, meaning an unexpected event, and we had a 20% fall in stocks in a very short period of time.” Ah yes, the classic “surprise! Your stocks just plummeted” moment. Who doesn’t love a good plot twist?
Now, what’s next? Lee points to historical patterns where doubt has fueled rallies. It’s like saying, “Remember when everyone thought we were doomed? Surprise! We weren’t!”
“When stocks began to rally after March of 2020, many fund managers said we’re still in a bear market,” he reminds us. Because who doesn’t love a good bear market story? And let’s not forget the fall of 2022 when everyone was convinced it was just another bear market rally. Spoiler alert: they were wrong. Again.
“But here’s the reality – investors flip bullish as soon as you make an all-time high,” he continues, as if we’re all just waiting for the next big moment to cheer. “They’ll fight the rally until you make a new all-time high. At a new high, they turn around and become bullish.” It’s like watching a bunch of kids at a birthday party suddenly decide they love cake when it’s time to cut it. 🎂
And let’s talk about Bitcoin, shall we? Lee mentions its recent all-time high above $111,000 as a leading indicator for the S&P. It’s like Bitcoin is the cool kid in school, peaking a month before the S&P and saying, “Look at me, I’m tracking increased global liquidity!”
As for Moody’s downgrade of US government debt from AAA to AA1, Lee is like, “Meh, I doubt it’s a negative signal for markets.” Because who needs a good credit rating anyway? It’s not like we’re all just living in a financial thriller. Remember when S&P first downgraded the US in 2011? Good times, right? 😂
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2025-05-26 03:42