Why was Bitcoin price down overnight?

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As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of market analysis under my belt, I find myself intrigued by the current state of Bitcoin and its altcoin counterparts. The recent pullback in BTC has been partly influenced by the shifting odds of Donald Trump’s re-election, which is quite fascinating given his pro-crypto stance.

Over the last three days, the Bitcoin price has retreated due to a temporary halt in its upward trend prior to the upcoming election next week.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $68,762, a 6.60% decrease from its peak this year, causing a ripple effect in the altcoin market. Notably, Mask Network (MASK), Immutable X (IMX), Decentraland (MANA), and MakerDAO (MKR) have experienced significant losses, standing out among the hardest hit.

The decrease in Bitcoin and other alternative coins can be attributed partially to the diminished likelihood of Donald Trump securing victory in the upcoming general election, as indicated by recent polls. Previously, his chances stood at 67%, but they have since dropped to 63%.

The chances of Trump winning, according to other forecasting platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt, have decreased as well. This change might be due to the fact that all surveys in decisive states are showing a tight race, implying an uncertain or hard-to-forecast result.

The uncertainty surrounding historical polling results adds to investors’ apprehension. For instance, during the 2016 elections, the majority of polls suggested a victory for Hillary Clinton, but this prediction did not come true. Similarly, in the recent midterm election, several polls indicated a significant Republican sweep in Congress, which also failed to materialize.

The reasons behind these developments are the concerns that have been raised recently. As a result, the majority of assets associated with Trump, including stocks like Trump Media & Technology and digital currencies such as Trumpcoin, MAGA, and TRUMP, have seen a decrease in value. Trump Media & Technology stock has fallen by approximately 35% from its peak this year, while these meme coins have also experienced a decline.

Trump is generally seen as one of the most pro-cryptocurrency presidents in recent times. As per Arkham’s estimation, his cryptocurrency holdings exceed $6 million. He has also promised to transform the U.S. into a leading global hub for cryptocurrencies by easing regulations and has expressed an intention to pardon Ross Ulbricht, the creator of Silk Road.

Over the last few days, I’ve noticed that the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high has decreased somewhat. As per Polymarket data, the current odds sit at 83%, which is lower than the peak of 94% we saw earlier this week.

I would like to wish our great Bitcoiners a Happy 16th Anniversary of Satoshi’s White Paper. We will end Kamala’s war on crypto, & Bitcoin will be MADE IN THE USA! VOTE TRUMP! #Bitcoin #FreeRossDayOne

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 31, 2024

Bitcoin price has favorable technicals

According to technical analysis, it seems like Bitcoin could still experience more growth. This is because a temporary drop in value was observed when Bitcoin approached the notable resistance point of around $73,777, which is often a pause point for assets following a test of significant resistance levels.

Bitcoin has formed a golden cross pattern, with the 200-day and 50-day moving averages crossing.

Not only does it exhibit an inverted head and shoulders chart formation, which is a positive technical indicator, but also ETF investments have skyrocketed to more than $24 billion. Considering these aspects, there’s a strong possibility that Bitcoin will recover soon and may even exceed its previous record high within this week.

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2024-11-01 16:39