Based on the remarks of Markus Thielen, who leads the research team at 10x Research, there’s a strong likelihood for a notable decrease in value for riskier investments such as cryptocurrencies and stocks over the next few weeks.
Thielen warned investors in an April 16 note that the cryptocurrency market may be nearing a critical juncture, leading to substantial price declines. His firm has already unloaded all tech stocks in readiness for this bearish trend.)
“We sold everything last night,” wrote Thielen.
The founder explained his pessimistic viewpoint, citing a decrease in anticipated rate cuts, an increase in bond yields, and ongoing inflation as the reasons behind it. In the past week, Bitcoin experienced an 11% decline, with a further 6.7% drop in just the previous day. At the time of writing, its price stood at $61,988.93. Thielen linked Bitcoin’s fall to decreased hopes for reduced U.S. interest rates.
“The majority of Bitcoin’s price surge in 2023-2024 is due to anticipation that interest rates will decrease. However, this perspective is currently facing significant opposition.”
Based on CME’s FedWatch tool, which is used to estimate market opinion, approximately 97.5% of investors anticipate that the interest rates will stay the same.
Based on Mary Daly’s latest remarks as the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, it seems her views are consistent with the idea that there is currently no need for the US to reduce interest rates.
Additionally, Thielen disclosed that their company continues to possess some strongly believed cryptocurrencies. Yet, it’s important to note that their general outlook on the market stays pessimistic.
Thielen’s latest caution comes after his pessimistic view on Bitcoin earlier this year. In a note to investors on April 15th, he predicted that miners might sell around $5 billion in Bitcoin after the halving event. Using historical trends as reference, Thielen suggested that the crypto market could experience an extended “summer drought.”
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2024-04-16 15:08