As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of market experience under my belt, I must say that the Fed Chairman’s latest remarks have sent ripples through both traditional and digital markets. While the initial shock of Powell’s hawkish stance has caused a dip in stocks and Bitcoin, I remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for BTC.
Initially, there was a strong belief in the market that another interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve would occur in December. However, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on Thursday, it seems that such a cut might not happen as anticipated. This news caused stocks to decline, and Bitcoin ($BTC) initially dipped but then rebounded early on Friday.
Fed Head talks markets down
Due to a surge in inflation rates, the Federal Reserve’s delicate situation has grown increasingly challenging. In response, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made assertive remarks during a conference on Thursday, expressing his concerns as hawkish sentiments.
“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,”
As an analyst, I can confirm that the chairperson of the Federal Reserve reaffirmed their belief in the robustness of the U.S. economy. They emphasized that any potential moves regarding interest rate adjustments, whether increases or decreases, will be approached cautiously.
Initially, the Fedwatch tool on the CME Group site predicted an approximately 80% chance of a rate reduction. Later, this probability dropped to 58%. Yet, it’s recently risen slightly and is now at approximately 62.4%.
The stock market experienced a decline today following the release of the news, as both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended up closing nearly 0.6% lower.
Third-largest outflow for U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs
It’s also plausible that the recent comments from Powell influenced the situation, but on Thursday, there was a significant withdrawal of 4,450 Bitcoins from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs. This is the third largest net outflow since these ETFs began operation at the start of the year. Following several days of substantial inflows, this could indicate that these ETFs are responsive to movements in the spot market’s price.
A shallow retracement for Bitcoin
For Bitcoin in the immediate future, the pattern on the chart suggests a continuation of usual trends. This latest drop, however, has been relatively modest – it only reached approximately 0.236 Fibonacci level. Additionally, the recent price action tested the upper trendline of the small bullish flag that was formed between Monday and Wednesday.
It appears that the primary obstacle for Bitcoin’s price increase is an ascending trendline, which originates from the initial peak during the 2021 bull market. This significant barrier could be the reason why Bitcoin’s price has been having difficulty surpassing it and maintaining a level above it.
There’s a glimmer of hope that the current situation might change soon, as the Short-Term Stochastic RSIs are either at their lowest points or about to reach them. When these indicators begin to rise again, it will suggest that the price trend is likely to head upward once more.
Possible bearish clouds on higher time frame
From my analysis perspective, surpassing the upward trendline in the weekly Bitcoin chart could be a noteworthy development. Should the BTC manage to finish the current week with a candle body above this trendline, it’s reasonable to anticipate potential continued bullish price movements.
On this time frame, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly creeping above the 70.00 threshold, a level historically acting as a strong barrier. This suggests that buyers currently have the upper hand in the market. Yet, for the RSI to climb significantly higher without forming a bearish divergence, it needs to surpass its previous peak.
Furthermore, it’s crucial to examine the peak reached in 2021 as well. At that time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed up to 94.70. To prevent a possible future significant bearish divergence, this level should be exceeded.
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2024-11-15 14:09