Bitcoin ($BTC) keeps everyone guessing – up or down from here?

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As a seasoned researcher with years of experience in the cryptocurrency market under my belt, I find myself intrigued by the current state of Bitcoin ($BTC). Having witnessed numerous bull and bear markets, I can say that the indecisiveness among Bitcoin holders is not uncommon, especially after such a monumental price milestone.

As a researcher delving into the world of cryptocurrencies, I find myself pondering the current state of Bitcoin ($BTC). Holders, aspiring long-term investors, and even those considering short positions are exhibiting a sense of uncertainty. The digital gold almost breached the $100,000 mark, but its subsequent volatility has left many questioning its next move. Is there still potential for a price drop, or is this simply another phase of consolidation before we witness Bitcoin soaring even higher?

Long-term holders take profits, but a smaller percentage each time 

For the average retail investor, who perhaps hasn’t been in the Bitcoin trading/investing space very long, a rather difficult decision is perhaps being mulled over. The king of the cryptocurrencies recently reached the incredibly important milestone of $100,000 (or just a couple of hundred dollars short of it). Market wisdom says that these big round figures are likely levels where many investors will be taking profits.

It’s quite possible that this event has transpired. Long-term investors often cash in a portion of their holdings when significant benchmarks are hit, taking advantage of the substantial liquidity pooling up at those points.

Despite any considerations, it’s worth noting that long-term Bitcoin holders are gradually selling a smaller portion of their assets over time. For instance, during the recent price surge, they only sold about 4% of their holdings. Compare this to the 2017 bull market peak where nearly 25% was sold, and in 2021 when it amounted to 13.4%.

Three trendlines in play

Over the past week, the Bitcoin ($BTC) daily chart indicates that following its near approach to $100,000, the price has mainly trended downward and sideways. This type of movement is typical after reaching such a significant price point, and it’s normal to experience a phase of consolidation or absorption.

At the moment, there are three trends unfolding. The briefest one indicates a decline or sideways motion over the past few days. Contrastingly, an uptrend that began on November 12 has led to the record high. However, the price is currently being pushed away from this ascending trendline which was previously broken.

The crucial trend, which dates back to the peak of the previous bull market in 2021, extends continuously. So far, it appears that the Bitcoin price has been finding it difficult to break above and sustain itself above this trendline.

The trend is your friend

Over a span of two weeks, Bitcoin’s price struggle is evident as it failed repeatedly to surpass its previous all-time high reached during the peak of the 2021 bull market.

Speaking of which, the most recent two-week candle was the first to start trading above the horizontal $69,000 mark and has since soared, touching the rising trendline. At present, the ongoing two-week candle is grappling with this trendline as well as the significant psychological barrier at $100,000.

Glancing at the base of the graph, you’ll notice the Stochastic RSI is climbing steadily, suggesting there may be significant further growth ahead. A common market adage, “let your trend continue until it ends,” seems especially relevant in this case. Novice traders and investors, be mindful.

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2024-11-28 17:11