Trudeau Out, Poilievre In? Polymarket Bets Signal Conservative Takeover

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It’s looking increasingly likely that Pierre Poilievre will take over as Canada’s prime minister from Justin Trudeau. He’s gaining traction due to favorable betting markets on Predictive Markets (Polymarket) and growing backing, especially amid the turmoil within the Liberal Party.

Polymarket Predicts Prime Minister Poilievre

Pierre Poilievre, head of Canada’s Conservative Party and a strong advocate for cryptocurrency, is currently the most likely candidate to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s next prime minister. According to the prediction platform Polymarket, which operates on a decentralized model based on user bets amounting to $257,000, Poilievre has an 89% chance of winning the upcoming federal election.

As an analyst, I’ve been tracking the Polymarket prediction which commenced on December 30, 2024. As of January 6, this market has seen a trading volume of approximately $412,095. This platform sets the resolution to “Yes” if Poilievre is elected as the next prime minister post the election, while “No” signifies otherwise.

Poilievre’s Rise and Pro-Crypto Stance

45-year-old Pierre Poilievre, who served as a senior cabinet minister under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper and took over leadership of the Conservative Party in 2022, is known for his advocacy on cryptocurrency. He openly disclosed his ownership of Purpose Bitcoin, a Canadian cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund. Furthermore, he has expressed support for Canadians having more autonomy when it comes to investing in digital assets such as Bitcoin.

Poilievre’s political strategies prioritize lowering taxes, minimizing government expenses, and tackling issues related to national security and affordability. His election efforts highlight the shift from the current Liberal-NDP alliance towards Conservative administration, with the goal of regaining control over Canada’s economic and policy environment.

Trudeau’s Resignation Sparks Political Turmoil

On January 6th, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau declared his intention to relinquish his position as leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister due to growing internal party stress and dwindling public approval ratings. This action was prompted by an unexpected resignation from Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland in December, which added more turmoil to the leadership of the Liberals. Freeland voiced her discontent with Trudeau’s handling of trade disputes with President-elect Donald Trump and advocated for stronger leadership to tackle economic difficulties.

Since taking on the roles of Liberal Party leader in 2013 and prime minister in 2015, Trudeau’s leadership has been subjected to growing criticism. As a minority government since 2019, the Liberals have found it challenging to keep public backing due to mounting dissatisfaction over policies such as the carbon tax, increased expenses, and concerns about housing affordability.

Conservatives Hold a Strong Lead

As Justin Trudeau resigns and the Liberal Party looks for a new leader before an election scheduled by October 20, 2025, polls indicate that the Conservatives are in a strong position to take control. The party has been consistently ahead of the Liberals by double digits, and Pierre Poilievre’s political platform seems to appeal to voters who are looking for substantial policy shifts.

With Canada’s upcoming federal election just around the corner, users on Polymarket are wagering that Poilievre will guide the country towards a fresh political chapter.

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2025-01-07 17:01