Biden Dropout Odds Surge to 80% on Polymarket After NYT Report

As a researcher with experience in political analysis, I find the recent surge in speculation surrounding President Joe Biden’s potential withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race to be an intriguing development. The New York Times report, citing an unnamed ally, suggests that Biden is aware of his precarious position and may even consider stepping down if he has another poor debate performance.


A New York Times article has caused a lot of buzz on Polymarket, with the probability of President Joe Biden withdrawing from the 2024 presidential race approaching 80%.

There’s now a 79% chance Biden drops out.

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 3, 2024

The probability of Joe Biden withdrawing from the presidential race surged from approximately 55% to over 80%, following a New York Times report. Over $10 million has been bet on this market, signaling heightened investor engagement in response to Biden’s recent debating showdown with Trump.

Worries about Biden’s ability to win elections grew stronger following his subpar debate showing, leading to increased chatter backed up by comments from an anonymous source suggesting Biden is mindful of his vulnerable political situation.

Several analysts in Washington have downplayed Biden’s prospects of defeating Trump in the 2024 presidential election after a subpar debate performance that brought attention to his advanced years. According to The New York Times, Biden himself holds this view about his chances of winning at the moment.

An anonymous source told The New York Times that if Biden has two more similar occurrences, the situation would change significantly.

As a crypto investor, I’ve come across various rumors and reports that can cause waves in the market. Regarding the New York Times article on X, I’d like to clarify my perspective: The White House representative has publicly contested the report’s accuracy and deemed it unfounded. Their goal is to put an end to the escalating conjecture surrounding the issue.

The rising speculation about Biden stepping down from the presidency underscores growing doubts amongst voters and Democrats about the strength of his candidacy. Should he choose to resign, the 2024 presidential race could witness significant shifts, potentially paving the way for new Democratic frontrunners.

With increasing conjecture, the actions Biden takes next become pivotal for the 2024 presidential election, shedding light on significant choices to be made for his campaign and the Democratic Party.

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2024-07-03 23:35