Bitcoin ($BTC) Bears Halt Christmas Rally: Crypto Market Insights

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As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of market experience under my belt, I find myself looking at the Bitcoin price action from a unique perspective. Having witnessed countless bull and bear markets across various asset classes, I must admit that the crypto space continues to surprise me with its relentless pace and unpredictability.

The price of Bitcoin ($BTC) surged by approximately $7,000, getting close to $100,000. However, this surge was halted by Bitcoin’s opponents on Thursday. Now, with Bitcoin priced slightly above $95,000, the question remains: What does the end of 2024 have in store for the leading cryptocurrency?

No more rally into end of year?

2024 is nearing its end, and the traditional Christmas rally seems unlikely at this point. Although there might be another bullish surge, pushing prices up to the peak of the rising trendline and a new record high, time is running out, and this recent downturn could still have further declines.

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflow continues

As an analyst, I’ve noticed a consistent trend in the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF market over the past four trading days. Specifically, there has been a net outflow of Bitcoins from these ETFs. On Wednesday alone, approximately 3,570 Bitcoins, equating to around $1.5 billion, left these ETFs. This marks a total outflow of 15,500 Bitcoins over this four-day period.

MicroStrategy aiming to provide rocket fuel for Bitcoin price

Based on recent discussions on social media, several Bitcoin enthusiasts continue to anticipate rising prices as we approach Q1 of 2025. This optimism could be fueled by MicroStrategy’s announcement for a special shareholders meeting, where they aim to expand their authorized Class A common stock from 330 million to 10.33 billion and preferred shares from 5 million to 1.005 billion.

It’s highly probable that the vote will favor the company, considering Chairman Michael Saylor controls almost half of the voting rights. If approved, this authorization could enable MicroStrategy to make substantial future Bitcoin purchases. This action might initiate a beneficial cycle where the rising Bitcoin price is followed by an increase in MicroStrategy’s stock price as well.

How far will $BTC price fall?

Looking at the immediate outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), we observe that the price has returned to challenge the base of the uptrending channel, only to be pushed away once more. As BTC descends again, we’ll soon discover where it might encounter some resistance and potentially bounce back.

At approximately $95,600, the current price point serves as a strong horizontal support level. If the price should drop, there’s a likelihood it could do so, and if it does, potential support levels can be found at $94,300. Following this, an ascending trendline may form around $92,600, and finally, the primary ascending trendline that extends back to the 2021 bull market double top, which would be situated roughly at $91,000.

Concerns on the 2-week chart

Looking at a two-week timeline, it’s important to note a few potential issues. The most recent two-week period seems to be wrapping around the previous one, suggesting a bearish trend. Yet, the final close for this period won’t occur until Sunday.

At the base of the graph, the Stochastic RSI, used for detecting price trends, seems to be preparing to decline. For now, there’s still a chance this could reverse. The 80.00 mark might offer support, as it has in previous instances. Meanwhile, the weekly Stochastic is trending downwards. This descent could last another month before possibly turning around and delivering the much-needed positive momentum.

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2024-12-26 15:07