As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade-long journey under my belt, I must admit that the current Bitcoin bull run has been nothing short of exhilarating. The price action we’re witnessing is reminiscent of the 2017 bull market, albeit with a more mature and institutionalized market this time around.
Bitcoin (BTC) is persistently climbing to unprecedented levels. Yesterday, it almost reached $94,000, marking another record-breaking peak. Will its positive trend persist, or are we nearing the pinnacle?
Buying frenzy continues
As for Bitcoin purchases, it appears quite favorable for Bitcoin holders. A significant amount of buying activity has been observed in the recent past, suggesting that this trend may persist.
In simple terms, Michael Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy, has purchased approximately 78,000 Bitcoins in two separate transactions over the course of just under two weeks. Shortly after the second purchase, MicroStrategy announced its intention to issue a $1.75 billion debt offering to acquire even more.
The idiom “it never rains but it pours” could be used to describe the frenzy of buying that is now taking place for the scarcest major asset in the world.
Given that a single entity can purchase nearly six months’ worth of Bitcoin within just a fortnight, one might ponder about the potential future supply situation of Bitcoin over the coming months.
One could easily envision quite a spectacle should Senator Lummis manage to pass the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill in a Republican-controlled Congress and Senate, given the potential excitement around such a move.
Retail no longer the buying force it was for Bitcoin
As an analyst, I find it noteworthy that the recent optimistic trends in the market are largely driven by institutions. However, this development might leave individual retail investors and holders in a less advantageous position, as they seem to be gradually exiting the market. It appears that future buying activity could predominantly stem from corporate treasuries, pension funds, hedge funds, family offices, and so forth.
When Satoshi Nakamoto initiated Bitcoin, it’s likely he envisioned it as a means of aid for those struggling under the traditional banking system, rather than a tool primarily for large corporations and similar entities.
Next $BTC breakout could be soon
On a temporary analysis of Bitcoin’s price movement, it appears to be following a pattern resembling an increasing triangle. Yet, due to ongoing price fluctuations, the exact placement of the upper boundary line remains uncertain at this point.
It’s worth noting that when the pattern is an ascending triangle for Bitcoin (BTC), it often doesn’t continue until the end of the triangle. Instead, there’s a high possibility that the breakout might occur prematurely. This suggests that the breakout could happen quite quickly.
Could the bull market end early in 2025?
The big picture for Bitcoin can be found on the 2-month chart. This shows the current huge candle body that is still growing, and has until the end of December before it is complete.
In summary, the Stochastic RSI below this price movement suggests Bitcoin’s momentum is still strong. However, the indicator lines are currently at their peak and will likely cross down soon. If we look back to the 2017 bull market, the lines remained high for five consecutive candles, which equals about 10 months. If the current bull market follows this pattern, there might be one more 2-month candle remaining. This could mean that the bull market concludes earlier than expected in 2025. So, where might the BTC price reach by then? There’s a possibility of a double top as seen in the 2021 bull market.
On the chart’s lower end, the Relative Strength Index indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently overbought. This might mean that the indicator line will touch or potentially break through the downward-sloping trendline when it reaches this point, depending on how intense the buying activity remains. If the buying momentum persists, the line could even surpass the trendline and continue rising further.
Interesting times are ahead.
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2024-11-20 15:03