As a seasoned market analyst with over two decades of experience under my belt, I’ve witnessed numerous political and economic events that have significantly influenced the financial markets. The current U.S. election is no exception, and its impact on Bitcoin, particularly in these tense final days, is something that warrants close attention.
With just one day left before the U.S. election concludes, the cryptocurrency market is feeling uneasy due to the close race between candidates. Bitcoin ($BTC) has now experienced six consecutive days of decline. If Trump doesn’t emerge victorious, will Bitcoin plummet even more?
Gap between Trump and Harris is closing
The lead held by Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Kamala Harris on the leading prediction market, Polymarket, has significantly narrowed down. A few weeks back, Trump led with a substantial gap in the high 60s, but now it’s down to the low 30s, with Harris closing the gap.
As the big day of the election approaches on Tuesday, the betting market – known for its accuracy – is suggesting that the race will be very close indeed.
Two key swing States slightly favour Harris
In addition to the existing uncertainties, it appears that the lean towards the undecided states, Michigan and Wisconsin, has shifted slightly in favor of Kamala Harris, as indicated by their new light blue coloring on the electoral map.
It seems that Pennsylvania might hold the decisive factor in this election. Although it currently leans slightly towards Trump (represented by a light red color), it’s considered a swing state. The gap between the candidates is very narrow, suggesting that Pennsylvania could tip the scales for either side and ultimately decide the election outcome.
Trump still up in majority of swing States
It seems that, as we near the end, the prediction market’s results are becoming more aligned with those of conventional polling agencies. As for the latest poll findings ending on November 2nd, Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and other key battleground states.
Bitcoin immediate future hangs on result
In the face of a heavy wave of uncertainty and doubt, Bitcoin has retreated to the significant $69,000 horizontal line of support and resistance. The future behavior of Bitcoin following either a Trump or Harris victory is yet uncertain.
If Trump wins, there’s a possibility that Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, might enter the final, possibly explosive phase of its upward trend. However, if Harris becomes president, her administration’s known skepticism towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies might persist, potentially halting the bull market in its tracks.
Bounce more likely, election result allowing
In simpler terms, the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin indicates that this recent dip has been quite significant. At one point, the price dipped below the level suggested by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and it almost reached the 0.786 Fibonacci level, which would have represented a particularly deep correction. However, it appears that the price is currently stabilizing above the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
To clarify, currently, the Bitcoin price remains below the significant horizontal barrier (orange line) that marked the peak of the 2022 bull market. Should the price sustain itself beneath this level, it could become a noteworthy worry for Bitcoin optimists.
Despite many short, medium, and long-term Stochastic RSIs moving upward or preparing to do so, it’s probable that we’ll see a rebound from the current position. A breach of the downward trendline, accompanied by a rise above $69,000, could hint at the commencement of the next bullish wave.
An ugly weekly candle
Examining the seven-day chart for Bitcoin (BTC), the most recent candle stands out prominently, showing a significant downward trend. This weekly close was not a fortunate one, and it’s clear that it wasn’t a mere oversight. Interestingly, the upper shadow of this week’s candle is almost identical in length to the largest upward wick at the start of the bullish pennant.
As someone who has been closely following the cryptocurrency market for years, I can attest that this latest dip in the price of Bitcoin back under $69,000 is all too familiar. Time and time again, we have seen intense selling pressure drive the price down, only for it to eventually recover. However, this time, I can’t help but feel a sense of unease. The market has been particularly volatile lately, and if history is any indication, another swing back down to much lower levels could be on the horizon. I have learned over the years that it’s important to stay vigilant and adaptable in this rapidly-changing market, and I will be keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s price movements in the coming days and weeks.
Although the election outcome will be announced on Tuesday, it’s important to note that this could potentially shift the market’s momentum towards the bulls. Nevertheless, don’t anticipate a quick surge upward. Instead, there might be a phase of consolidation or accumulation to handle the substantial weekly loss. Brace yourself for increased market volatility.
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2024-11-04 14:15