Bitcoin’s Cycle Tops: The Calm Before the Chaotic Storm

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So, there’s Bitcoin again, climbing higher like an overzealous mountain goat, eyeing its all-time high of $110,000—an elusive dream it briefly reached in January this year. Now, it’s hanging around 5% shy of that peak, making investors and market analysts twitchy, wondering if this little bull run is the sign of a cycle top—or just another false alarm. But here’s the thing: those reliable cycle-top indicators we’ve trusted for years? Yeah, they’re starting to act a little funky. Funny how the markets always know how to keep us on our toes.

Bitcoin vs. The Cycle-Top Trend: Who’s Gonna Win?

Bitcoin’s thinking of hitting the gas pedal again, but not everyone is convinced it’s going to follow the same old playbook. Enter Alphractal, an advanced investment platform that, surprise, surprise, is pointing out a potential curveball. According to their analysis, Bitcoin’s market behavior could challenge one of the most reliable indicators of past cycle tops. So, what’s the big deal? It’s the 2-year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA) that’s got everyone raising an eyebrow.

According to Alphractal, the way Bitcoin has behaved over past cycles has shown that its tops are occurring at lower multiples of the 2Y SMA over time. Less volatility, slower consolidation—like a party that’s winding down instead of gearing up. Kind of like when you realize you’ve been drinking too much coffee and need to take a nap. A mature market, perhaps? We’ll see.

If you look at the multiplier chart, you can see the pattern. Bitcoin’s first peak was at around 2Y SMA x15, followed by 2017’s cycle topping out at 2Y SMA x10, and then in 2021, it hit 2Y SMA x5 before dipping to 2Y SMA x2.65. Notice how the peaks are getting lower? It’s like Bitcoin’s running out of steam—but then again, maybe it’s just learning to pace itself.

The current cycle tried to break past that 2Y SMA ×2.65 mark, but didn’t quite make it. That level is currently sitting at $159,000, which is like the big, shiny wall Bitcoin has to smash through to prove it’s still got the goods. But, hey, who knows? If it gets a nice tailwind, maybe it’ll just plow through it like a wrecking ball.

While Bitcoin is taking its sweet time getting there, Alphractal’s analysis suggests that every new cycle could push us past that 2-year moving average, giving this market some long-term muscle. At least that’s the dream, right?

Bitcoin’s Peak Is Coming… Just Not Right Now

Now, enter Axel Adler Jr., the on-chain expert who’s playing detective with Bitcoin’s cycle peak using the MVRV-Z Top Pricing Bands. This indicator is a little trickier—it’s like the detective that solves the case without you even knowing how. It tracks the z-score standard deviation between market value and realized value, and in layman’s terms, it’s a good way to predict when Bitcoin might hit its peak or bottom. And guess what Axel’s saying? This cycle? Not quite yet, folks. According to him, Bitcoin’s peak probably won’t be until Fall—just enough time for everyone to hold their breath a little longer.

In the meantime, he’s also noting that selling pressure is pretty chill for now, which is a good sign. If you’re holding, now’s your moment to savor the calm before the storm. As long as no “Black Swan” events decide to crash the party, Bitcoin might just make it through this final surge without any surprises. Fingers crossed, right?

As of the latest check, Bitcoin’s price is just shy of $104,000, creeping up with a 2% bump in the past 24 hours. Trading volume’s also picking up, with a 14% increase in the last day. Things are looking up, but the real question is: can Bitcoin make it past that big $159,000 resistance? Stay tuned—it’s going to be one heck of a ride.

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2025-05-16 20:15