Bitcoin’s halving unlikely to affect price in next 18 months, Kaiko says

As an experienced analyst, I believe that Bitcoin’s upcoming halving may not result in a prolonged bull run over the next 12-18 months. Based on my research and observation of market trends, I agree with Kaiko’s assessment that new investors are crucial for Bitcoin’s growth during this period.


As a researcher studying the impact of Bitcoin‘s halving on its price trend, I don’t believe this event will initiate a sustained bull market over the next year and a half. Instead, I propose that the entry of new investors through spot ETFs in the United States and Hong Kong may provide some short-term price support but won’t be the primary driving force behind a prolonged bull run.

According to analysts at Kaiko, the much-awaited fourth Bitcoin halving is predicted to exert a lesser influence on Bitcoin’s development over the next year and a half. Contrary to previous assumptions, the reduction in miners’ rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC may not be the main driving force behind Bitcoin’s price increase, as suggested in a recent study by the Paris-based blockchain firm.

“The historical price surges after Bitcoin’s halving events are notable. However, with this latest occurrence, the cryptocurrency market is evolving, and the broader economic landscape remains unpredictable.”

Kaiko

This occasion, the experts predict that Bitcoin’s upcoming price will hinge on drawing in fresh investors, primarily through the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US market and imminently in Hong Kong. This trend underscores Bitcoin’s expanding recognition within traditional finance circles.

In the current high-interest rate scenario, which marks the first time Bitcoin has undergone halving, analysts caution that there is no established pattern for how the cryptocurrency will perform in the long term. However, according to Kaiko’s analysis, strong liquidity and growing demand are expected to significantly enhance Bitcoin’s value proposition over the next few months.

Based on crypto.news’ previous analysis, the typical post-halving price surge pattern for Bitcoin might deviate this time around due to several factors. For instance, the current price cycle leading up to this halving event is more condensed than in past cycles. In contrast, Bitcoin has already experienced substantial price growth before the halving, reaching unprecedented highs such as $73,750 in mid-March.

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2024-04-26 10:17