As a seasoned researcher who has closely followed the crypto market for years, I can confidently say that the upcoming U.S. presidential election is indeed shaping up to be a critical factor influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The market’s heightened sensitivity to political developments, as evidenced by options contracts trading at a 10% premium around the election, is a clear sign of this.
Based on a recent analysis by QCP Capital, it’s anticipated that the outcome of the forthcoming U.S. presidential election may significantly impact the direction in which Bitcoin‘s price moves.
As the upcoming election serves as a significant trigger for Bitcoin (BTC) and the larger cryptocurrency market, there remains ambiguity regarding what the aftermath of the election might bring, based on recent communications from QCP via Telegram.
Contracts for options due around the upcoming election are priced about 10% higher than usual for other expiration dates, suggesting that the market is particularly attuned to political events and their potential impact.
QCP’s findings indicate that alterations in public opinion reflected in polls, or adjustments in the storylines of either candidate’s election campaign, might boost market volatility, causing significant fluctuations in prices.
At the moment, Bitcoin is steady near $67,000, peaking slightly at $68,000 due to a more than 2% increase. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s performance has shown a positive relationship with the possibility of Trump’s win, in contrast to Kamala Harris, who has expressed less favorable opinions about the crypto sector.
Bitcoin ETFs
Over the past four days, there has been an increase in investments into Bitcoin ETFs, with a significant addition of $456.90 million on October 16th alone. This could indicate a persistent positive trend, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price might continue rising based on this pattern, as suggested by QCP.
Should inflows continue, certain analysts anticipate that Bitcoin’s record peak of $73,790 could be within reach.
According to the QCP report, it appears that long-term trust in the asset is growing, as evidenced by the recent acquisition of 600 options for March 2028 at a $120,000 strike price. Yet, the upcoming election serves as an unpredictable factor, causing uncertainty about Bitcoin’s future trajectory.
The U.S. election and crypto
In the current election cycle, both major political parties are making efforts to win over the crypto community, not just by gaining their support but also by seeking their financial backing.
At his latest public events, Donald Trump has publicly stated a favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies, marking a shift from his past critical views. Previously, during an interview in 2021, he referred to digital currencies as a “scam.
During this current election period, Trump expressed his intention to support cryptocurrencies during his next term as president. He stated, “Cryptocurrencies are leaving the U.S. due to its hostile stance on them. I don’t want that. If we plan to accept it, we need to allow for its presence here.” This was expressed in a rally.
Across the political divide, Democrats, spearheaded by Harris’s campaign crew, kick-started the Crypto4Harris project in early August, aiming to foster connections within the cryptocurrency community and thwart Republican strategies aimed at courting crypto supporters.
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2024-10-17 20:37