Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster: Will It Soar or Just Sputter? 🎢💸

by

So, Bitcoin (BTC) has decided to break out of its month-long sulk, emerging from a descending wedge like a teenager finally leaving their room after a week of binge-watching reality TV. But hold your horses! There’s not much enthusiasm in this breakout—it’s like a party where everyone shows up but no one wants to dance. Will this lack of conviction change, or are we destined for more sideways shuffling? 🤔

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs: The Drama Continues

In the world of U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, the outflows are flowing like a leaky faucet—steady but not exactly a deluge. These ETFs usually give us a peek into the crypto market’s mood, but right now, they’re about as reliable as a weather forecast in April. Sure, the outflows aren’t massive, but they’re still enough to make you raise an eyebrow and wonder if everyone’s just waiting for the next big thing to come along. 🧐

Peace Talks and Inflation: A Comedy of Errors

Meanwhile, on the geopolitical stage, President Trump is chatting about peace with Russia, while Europe and Ukraine’s Zelensky are throwing shade like it’s a summer barbecue. There’s a glimmer of hope that this war could wrap up quickly, allowing leaders to focus on their economies instead of their Twitter accounts. Because who doesn’t want to save lives and get back to the important stuff, like inflation? 😅

Speaking of inflation, U.S. Treasury yields are trending lower, and everyone’s holding their breath to see how Trump’s tariffs will play out. It’s like waiting for the other shoe to drop, except the shoe is made of gold and the floor is covered in banana peels. 🍌

In this delightful mess, Bitcoin has decided to break free from its descending wedge. But the weak strength of this breakout might just mirror the uncertainty swirling around the markets. Any rally could end up being as exciting as a damp squib—great in theory, but ultimately disappointing. 💨

Bitcoin Breakout: Will It Fly or Flop? 🤷‍♂️

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we see Bitcoin’s breakout, but let’s not forget the fakeouts that have come before. For this breakout to be the real deal, it needs to hit a higher high at $99,000, and then flip that pesky $100,000 resistance into support. Easy peasy, right? 🙄

But if this breakout is as weak as a decaf coffee, we might just see Bitcoin roll over and go back to its cozy sideways slumber. The volume profile is suggesting that this could be the case, and nobody wants to see Bitcoin take a nap again. 😴

Bitcoin’s Bull Market: Hanging by a Thread

Now, if we zoom out to the monthly chart, we can really appreciate the drama unfolding. The Fibonacci levels are like the plot twists in a soap opera, and right now, Bitcoin is being rejected from the all-important 1.618 level. Until it can close above that, the bull/bear market is hanging in the balance like a tightrope walker with a fear of heights. 🎪

As we move down the chart, the Stochastic RSI is gearing up for a downward cross, and we’ve got about a week to avoid that disaster. Maybe there’s still time for the 80.00 level to act as support, just like a good friend who always knows when to catch you when you fall. 🤗

At the bottom of the chart, the RSI is showing a downtrend since early 2021. The indicator line is currently above the downtrend, having bounced from it once. A second bounce is crucial for Bitcoin to resume its bull run, or we might just be left wondering what could have been. 🎢

Read More

2025-02-20 14:03