Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Is It Headed for a Crash or a Comeback?

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So, here we are, folks. After two days of watching Bitcoin plummet like a lead balloon, you have to wonder if it’s time to start building a bunker. The price took a nosedive from $96,000 to $86,000 faster than I can say “cryptocurrency,” and for now, it seems to have stopped the bleeding. But let’s be real: if this downward spiral continues, Bitcoin might just be staring into the abyss, and I’m not talking about the one where I keep my collection of expired coupons.

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs see record net outflow of $937.90 million

Meanwhile, in the land of Michael Saylor—formerly known as Microstrategy—he’s been hoarding Bitcoin like it’s the last pack of toilet paper during a pandemic. But the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs? They’re heading in the opposite direction, with a record net outflow of $937.90 million. That’s right, folks, they’ve outdone themselves, smashing the previous record of $671.90 million like it was a piñata at a child’s birthday party.

In the last eleven trading days, these ETFs have seen only one day of net inflow. It’s like watching a group of people at a buffet: when the market dips, the weaker hands sell their Bitcoin faster than I can say “I’ll have the salad.”

Now that the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are net sellers, one can only wonder how much this will weigh down the price as the bulls try to lift Bitcoin away from the $86,000 cliff. It’s like trying to lift a car with a toothpick—good luck with that!

U.S. consumer confidence at recessionary low

And speaking of confidence, the U.S. economy is about as cheerful as a cat in a bathtub. February’s Consumer Confidence Report showed the worst monthly decline since August 2021. The Expectations Index dropped to a dismal 72.9, which is well below the 80 mark that usually signals a recession. It’s like the economy is playing a game of limbo, and it just keeps going lower and lower.

Just another $10,000 price swing?

Now, let’s talk about Bitcoin’s recent price action. The 4-hour chart looks like a rollercoaster designed by a sadistic engineer, with swings of $10,000 becoming as common as my neighbor’s unsolicited advice. As the price plummeted, the major ascending trendline held the bears at bay for a hot minute, proving it still has some fight left in it. But now that it’s flipped into resistance, the bulls have their work cut out for them—like trying to assemble IKEA furniture without the instructions.

First things first: the bulls need to get back above the bottom trendline of the descending wedge and hold above the 0.382 Fibonacci level. If they fail, we might be looking at a rapid tumble down to $73,000. It’s like watching a toddler on a tricycle—one wrong move and it’s all over.

Bitcoin forming the next step in price structure

When you zoom out to the weekly view, you can see the major steps in Bitcoin’s price. We’re either gearing up for the next level of the bull market or we’ve hit the peak and are about to slide back down to the previous step at around $70,000. It’s like a game of musical chairs, and I’m just hoping I don’t end up without a seat.

Even if this is the top, there’s still time for the price to dip down to $70,000 and then bounce back up to form a double top. It’s like a bad relationship—you keep hoping for a comeback, but deep down, you know it’s probably not going to happen.

Another theory is that Bitcoin manages to hold its ground here and builds a more secure base for that last explosive move. You know, the kind that takes it into the final blow-off top phase of this bull market. Fingers crossed, folks! 🤞

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2025-02-26 14:07