Brace, Brace, Brace: Says Crypto Hours Before US Elections

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As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of elections and their impact on various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. The upcoming U.S. election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris promises to be no exception, as it has become a major talking point for crypto enthusiasts and politicians alike.

In just a few hours, the United States will stir and hold its 47th presidential election, following a heated political race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The outcome of this contest could impact a wide range of issues, including cryptocurrency.

In the wisdom of the ancient Greek philosopher Plato, “not participating in politics can result in being ruled by those less capable.” Similarly, with this mindset, the 50 million-strong U.S. cryptocurrency community will exercise their right to vote, aiming for a more favorable future in the global crypto industry.

As a researcher, I’ve never encountered an election in the United States where the topic of cryptocurrencies and their regulation has taken center stage among politicians to such an extent. Interestingly, Donald Trump expresses strong affinity towards the cryptocurrency community, aiming to transform the U.S. into the global leader in Bitcoin Mining. Conversely, Kamala Harris emphasizes the importance of fostering inclusivity within the crypto space, particularly focusing on increased ownership among black men.

Although things might seem promising with Bitcoin at $68,638, a new record high set over the weekend, the crypto market’s foundation remains unstable. Even the most experienced investors are aware of this instability as they prepare for the potential volatility that may arise following the upcoming American election on Tuesday, when voters will start to cast their ballots.

Today, November 5 (US time), the US Elections are set to take place, and interestingly, Bitcoin almost reached its all-time high (ATH) yesterday, falling only $200 short. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 experienced a 1.8% weekly decline, resulting in a loss of approximately $953 billion in market capitalization on the last day of October.

— KK (Kyrylo Khomiakov) 🔸Binance (@KhomiakovKyrylo) November 5, 2024

Experts have different views regarding how the upcoming election might affect Bitcoin’s value, with estimates suggesting a possible fluctuation ranging from 8% to 10%. This translates to a potential $8000 price swing. As reported by Bloomberg, Caroline Mauron, a co-founder of Orbit Markets, indicates that the options market could experience an 8% shift in either direction on the election day, which is significantly more than the usual 2% change observed on regular days.

A well-known analyst and crypto trader, Daan Crypto Trades, anticipates a 10% price shift. In his latest post, he expressed that while Bitcoin doesn’t have the cleanest weekly candle this week, he believes the upcoming events won’t significantly impact its direction, whether it moves up or down.

It’s likely that the price may experience a significant shift, roughly 10%, based on the outcome of this week’s election.

The contest in the election is tight between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, as both have shown interest in cryptocurrencies before. Yet, there’s a noticeable gap in their attitudes towards crypto. Trump has been vocal about his pro-crypto stance, expressing full confidence in the potential of the crypto sector, while Harris has leaned towards a more measured approach, promising to establish a regulatory structure for digital assets.

Over the last several days, Bitcoin has experienced some significant surges. When Donald Trump expressed his backing for cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s value reached an all-time high of $73,624 during the polling phase where he was leading. However, as Trump’s chances of winning the election seem less likely, Bitcoin’s price has dipped by approximately 8% from its peak.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting that following elections, the market has often experienced short-term dips which have historically led to long-term upward trends. For instance, in the years 2012, 2016, and 2020, we observed a pattern similar to this: an initial decline followed by a consistent increase, mirroring Bitcoin’s growth patterns over time.

Conclusion

As a researcher observing Bitcoin trends, I’ve noticed a pattern where the value tends to rise after elections and following halving events. Given a 10% fluctuation, if Bitcoin were to experience a 10% drop, it could potentially reach approximately $61,830. On the other hand, should there be a 10% increase, Bitcoin could surpass its all-time high, potentially climbing up to around $75,571. Anticipating both potential market swings, traders are gearing up for potential price increases as well as decreases.

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2024-11-05 11:00