As a seasoned investor with years of market navigation under my belt, I must say that the current market trends are painting a rather challenging picture for these three cryptocurrencies – TON, Cosmos (ATOM), and Dogwifhat (WIF).
On this fresh start of the week, most significant digital currencies are experiencing losses, as Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $58,000 and Ethereum (ETH) fell beneath $2,500 once more. This downturn caused a decrease in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization by 1.91%, keeping it slightly above the $2 trillion threshold.
The vast majority of cryptocurrencies have experienced significant weekly declines: Bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 10%, Ethereum (ETH) fell almost 11%, and Solana (SOL) plummeted approximately 20%. Other notable losses were seen in Dogecoin (DOGE), which decreased by 14%; Toncoin (TON), down 10.71%; Cardano (ADA), nearly 15% lower; and Polkadot (DOT), almost as much at nearly 15%. This has sparked concerns among analysts that Bitcoin may be entering a bear market, as current trends suggest a potential further drop in price.
Crypto Markets Await US Job Data
The traditional stock market and the cryptocurrency sector are eagerly awaiting significant events such as the upcoming release of US job data this week. This data is crucial because it can influence interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve, which in turn affects Bitcoin’s and other prominent altcoins’ performance. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials will be speaking this week, offering insights into their future policy decisions.
On September 6th, the US Job Data will be released, providing valuable insights into potential Federal Reserve policies and offering investors a glimpse into the nation’s economic status. Predictions suggest that this month’s employment report may show an improvement of around 162,000 jobs over the previous month’s 114,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate is anticipated to decrease from its July level of 4.3% to approximately 4.2%. It’s worth noting that these figures are not expected to alter the current plans for a rate cut by the Fed. However, any surprising numbers could influence market sentiment broadly if they diverge significantly from expectations.
Where Do BTC And Other Altcoins Go From Here?
Over the past seven days, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant drop. Bitcoin fell below $58,000 as we enter a new week, and Ethereum lost its position above $2,500, currently trading around $2,450. Historically, September has been a weak month for Bitcoin, and if negative sentiment persists, it could potentially dip to as low as $50,000. Interestingly, Bitcoin ended August 8.6% lower than its average of 1.75% gains, according to data from CoinGlass. This trend was also observed in the last week of August, as per data from the same source.
As an analyst, I’m sharing a perspective from CrypNuevo, who anticipates potential upward and downward liquidity sweeps this coming week. This means that market participants might experience both profitable buying opportunities (upside liquidity hunt) and challenging selling situations (downside liquidity hunt).
“In terms of trading, I’m leaning towards holding long positions. Ideally, I’d like to witness a drop in price first, so it can trigger liquidations and create a wick at $56.6k. This would provide an opportunity for me to buy (long). Therefore, I have placed a long order for Sunday and Monday at the $56.6k level, should we experience a potential false move at the start of the trading week.”
Regardless of Bitcoin (BTC) trading near the bottom end of its price range, large investors known as ‘whales’ remain unfazed and even boost their BTC holdings. They view these dips as potential chances to buy more Bitcoin. According to market analysis platform Santiment, this behavior suggests they see the current situation as a buying opportunity rather than a cause for panic.
For the last month, larger Bitcoin holders (with amounts between 10 and 10,000 coins) have collectively amassed an additional 133,300 coins, as smaller traders seem to be quickly unloading their holdings to them.
A promising development is the consistent decrease in Bitcoin held on significant trading platforms. According to CryptoQuant’s findings, this stockpile has reduced by approximately 12.9% since January, indicating that investors may hold a long-term optimistic view of the market.
Crypto Markets Lost Over $300 Million In August
Approximately $313 million in cryptocurrencies were stolen by hackers through more than ten attacks that occurred in August, as per data from the security firm PeckShield. Phishing scams accounted for 93.5% of these thefts, resulting in losses totaling about $293.4 million. The two largest phishing incidents led to the loss of around $238 million in Bitcoin and $55 million in DAI. Other significant hacks in August included those targeting the Ronin Network, which recovered $12 million from the hacker but suffered unauthorized transactions worth $5.1 million. Additionally, DeFi protocol Nexera reported a loss of approximately $1.83 million due to a smart contract exploit.
First Crypto Transaction Between AI Agents
In a significant advancement for the cryptocurrency sector, Coinbase recently supervised the first fully automated crypto transaction carried out by artificial intelligence bots. This milestone underscores the industry’s progress in creating platforms that enable AI agents to manage transactions. The announcement was made on X by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
“This week at @CoinbaseDev, we witnessed our first AI to AI crypto transaction.”
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) began September on a challenging note as its value dropped to a two-week minimum, falling below $58,000 during Sunday evening. This decline transpired over the weekend, a time when trading volume is typically low, making it difficult for buyers to halt the descent. As the biggest cryptocurrency in the world, BTC closed August with an 8.6% decrease, significantly lower than its usual monthly growth of 1.75%, as indicated by data from CoinGlass. Given that September is historically a poor month for BTC and it has already started in the red, investors are concerned that the price might drop further.
Over the past week, particularly in August’s latter half, Bitcoin (BTC) has predominantly traded in the negative territory following a substantial decline of approximately 5.39% on August 27. This steep drop caused the price to dip below both the 50 and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and the $60,000 psychological level.
On Friday, Bitcoin dipped again toward $58,000 due to selling pressure, but buyers managed to keep it above this mark and push it back up over $59,000. By the end of the day, it settled at $59,163 after a 0.46% drop. However, sellers regained control over the weekend, causing Bitcoin to fall below $58,000 on Sunday, decreasing by 2.62% to reach $57,399. Currently, buyers are trying to push Bitcoin back above $60,000, with a 0.76% increase in the present session. So, where will Bitcoin head next?
Following a drop in Bitcoin’s price below $58,000 on Sunday, experts suggest that for the cryptocurrency to continue its upward trajectory, it should avoid falling below the $56,000 mark. One expert commented on this point.
“It’s crucial for us to push Bitcoin up significantly now, to solidify our ongoing uptrend which began in August. The price should ideally stay above $57,700, but if it drops below this point, it must hold at the $56,000 level. If we lose the $56,000 mark, that would signal a new lower low.”
Some analysts propose that Bitcoin might have to decrease further before it can continue its upward trajectory. Specifically, Markus Thielen, the chief researcher at 10x Research, advises investors to be patient and consider entering the market when Bitcoin dips below $40,000 as a potential opportunity for investment in a bull run.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
As the crypto market started September with a downturn, ETH fell below $2,500 and touched the $2,400 support. It hit a low of $2,425 on this test. Despite hitting a high of $2,820 as late as August 24, ETH found it challenging to maintain levels above $2,600. The price trend turned bearish, and by August 27, ETH fell to $2,458 after a decline of 8.33%. On Wednesday, ETH tried to recover from its low of $2,402, moving above $2,500 and ending at $2,529. However, the momentum waned on Thursday, with ETH dropping back to $2,529 after reaching a high of $2,597 during the day.
On Friday, sellers pushed ETH down to a bottom of $2,436, but robust buying interest at lower prices helped it regain some ground, resulting in minimal drop and maintaining its position above the significant $2,500 mark. However, the weekend saw a 3.44% dip on Sunday that lowered the price to $2,428, causing ETH to lose the $2,500 level temporarily. But as demand resurfaced near the $2,400 support, ETH bounced back on Monday, with the current session showing a 0.77% increase as buyers aimed to regain the $2,500 mark.
August has been a particularly challenging month for Ethereum (ETH), marking its most difficult spell since the DeFi summer of 2020. The significant drop in ETH’s value and network fees is primarily due to the shift towards Layer2 networks and the emergence of Blobs through ERC 4337. This transition has affected ETH’s “sound money” image, as its deflationary character has become less attractive to investors. The drop in fees has also resulted in reduced rewards for ETH stakers, with a staggering 90% decrease in 2024 alone, causing an alarmingly high inflation rate of 0.7%. Consequently, ETH has found it difficult to surpass critical price thresholds like the $2,600 mark, leading to apprehension among investors.
To continue its upward trend, Ethereum (ETH) needs to surpass the $2,600 mark. If it does and manages a close above this point, traders may aim for the significant $2,850 level. But if ETH fails to gain traction at these heights, there could be a potential drop in value. Should the $2,400 barrier be broken, ETH might slide down to $2,300 or even $2,200. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) now indicates that sellers are in control at present.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Bearish sentiment around Solana (SOL) intensified over the weekend as the altcoin lost the $130 level after tanking to a low of $127 on Sunday. SOL has struggled in recent sessions and spent last week in the red as it struggled to recapture any momentum since being rejected at $160 and dipping below $150 on Tuesday. By Friday, SOL had dropped to a day low of $132 as sellers threatened to overwhelm the $130 support level. However, buyers pushed the price back up to $138, with SOL eventually registering a decline of 1.46%. The weekend saw bearish sentiment intensify as SOl registered a 1.90% drop on Saturday to settle at $135.
A substantial drop of 5.03% on Sunday led to SOL dropping below the $130 support level, dipping to $128. Buyers attempted to reclaim $130 during the ongoing session but could not do so. SOL is currently down by almost 1% as sellers look to drive the price lower. Several indicators suggest that bears are in control of the market, in case the price chart and price action were not evidence enough. A downward-sloping RSI and 20-day SMA indicate strong bearish sentiment. Additionally, the MACD is also bearish, indicating that sellers have control.
The cryptocurrency Solana (SOL) is facing decreased institutional demand, which, coupled with its absence in the ETF market, is putting additional pressure on its price. If the current trend continues, SOL might drop to around $116, where it could potentially find support. Investors are anticipated to protect this level, and a recovery may push SOL back up to $130. However, if $116 gives way, SOL could tumble down to $100.
Polkadot (DOT) Price Analysis
Polkadot (DOT) has been battling to maintain its position above $4, following increased bearish sentiment that set in after it dropped below $4.20 over the weekend. This dip erased all the progress made during the previous uptrend that took DOT up to $5. The high of $5.11 achieved last Saturday was short-lived as buying pressure waned, causing DOT to slide into negative territory. By Tuesday, DOT had dropped below its 20-day moving average and closed at $4.38. On Wednesday, the price fell by nearly 3% to reach $4.26. However, a slight rebound occurred on Friday as DOT saw a minimal increase of 0.94%. Despite this small uptick, sellers still appear to have the upper hand.
Initially, buyers couldn’t push prices higher due to decreasing demand and liquidity, allowing sellers to drive down DOT by 0.70% to $4.26 on Saturday. The bearish trend grew stronger on Sunday as DOT fell below $4.20, dropping a further 4.46% to close at $4.07. However, in the current session, buyers are trying to recover, with DOT rising by 1.47% to trade at $4.13. The price direction of DOT is currently critical since it depends on whether buyers can keep its value above $4 and reclaim the $4.20 price level. If buyers manage to regain momentum and push DOT back up to $4.20, this could potentially lead to a move towards $4.50, where the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is acting as resistance. A break above this moving average might cause DOT to resume its advance towards $5.
As an analyst, I find myself contemplating a potential scenario where sellers regain dominance in the market, possibly causing the DOT price to drop below $4. In this case, the long-standing support level at $3.62 would come back into play. It’s important to note that under such circumstances, we might witness a recovery for DOT as the RSI approaches the oversold zone. However, it’s crucial to consider the recent shift in the MACD, now pointing towards bearish trends, which suggests substantial selling pressure is present.
Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis
Toncoin (TON) is finding it tough to surpass the $6 mark, as sellers are aggressively guarding this level. The elongated candlesticks from August 28 hint at this resistance. Furthermore, sellers aim to drive TON prices below $5, but buyers are battling hard to maintain the price above the support level. Pessimism toward TON grew stronger as the weekend approached. On Thursday, TON dipped by 1.49% after attempts to break above the 200-day Simple Moving Average failed, reaching $5.45. The decline continued on Friday, with a drop of more than 2%, ending the day at $5.34. Despite a slight recovery of 1.24% on Saturday, TON once again dropped, this time by 4.30%, to close at $5.17 on Sunday.
As an analyst, I’m observing that TON is currently experiencing a 0.86% rise, trading at $5.22. For any prospect of pushing towards $6, buyers need to maintain TON above the $5 mark. On the flip side, sellers will strive to thwart any bullish energy and aim to break the $5 support level. If successful, TON might drop to a significant support level at $4.72.
Cosmos (ATOM) Price Analysis
Currently, the cryptocurrency Cosmos (ATOM) is facing challenges as it trades beneath its short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages. After reaching a high of $5.34 last weekend, ATOM has been experiencing a continuous decline, dropping approximately 5% on August 25th. By August 27th, ATOM had dipped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), following a near 6% drop, and settled at $4.60. The days from Wednesday to Thursday showed heightened volatility as both buyers and sellers fought for control, with ATOM only registering minor gains on both days. Sellers attempted to push the price below $4 on Friday, but rising demand at lower levels allowed buyers to counteract and push the price up by 0.90%, reaching $4.65.
Over the weekend, negative feelings about ATOM emerged, causing it to fall by 1.92% on Saturday and 5.62% on Sunday, closing the week at $4.30. At present, ATOM is seeing a 0.87% rise as buyers aim for $4.50. Earlier in the week, buyers aimed to surpass the $5 price mark, but recent bearishness has left ATOM near its support level. For any bullish trend to develop, buyers need to push ATOM beyond its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), approximately at the $4.70 level. Crossing this threshold could trigger a move towards $5.
Dogwifhat (WIF) Price Analysis
At present, Dogewhathat (WIF) is experiencing one of its poorest showings among meme coins, with its price plummeting a significant 24% over the last month alone. Data from Lookonchain reveals that WIF has dropped a concerning 71% from its highest point in the past year. The Solana-backed meme coin’s situation appears to be worsening, as it failed to surpass the $2 price mark on August 24, causing a bearish trend. This setback caused WIF to start the previous week in the negative territory and by Tuesday (August 27) dip below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), following an almost 11% drop that pushed the price down to $1.57. Sellers aimed to further lower the price on Wednesday, but buyers stepped in to counter their efforts and make attempts to rise above the 20-day SMA. However, despite these efforts, WIF managed only a minimal increase and remained beneath the SMA.
On Thursday, sellers prevented the asset (WIF) from rising above its 20-day Simple Moving Average, causing it to dip from a daily high of $1.69 to $1.53, representing a nearly 3% drop. Sellers continued their downward push on Friday, driving the price down to a low of $1.43 before recovering slightly to $1.54. However, bearish sentiments prevailed over the weekend as the asset dropped by 1.68% on Saturday and over 8% on Sunday, settling close to $1.40. In the current trading session, buyers are trying to regain control and push WIF back above the $1.40 support level, with a 1.33% increase in price.
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2024-09-02 15:15