Crypto Price Analysis 9-30 BITCOIN: BTC, ETHEREUM: ETH, SOLANA: SOL, DOGECOIN: DOGE, DOGWIFHAT: WIF, POLKADOT: DOT, RIPPLE: XRP

As a seasoned trader with years of experience under my belt, I’ve seen market trends come and go, but the recent surge in WIF, Polkadot (DOT), and Ripple (XRP) has certainly caught my attention.

today, Bitcoin (BTC) fell slightly below $65,000 earlier, marking a decrease of approximately 2.50% over the past day. At present, it is hovering just under this level. Meanwhile, investment in Spot Bitcoin ETFs has surged, drawing in around $449 million, further increasing demand due to speculation about potential interest rate reductions and optimistic predictions for a soft economic recovery in the US.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed a concerning dip in the overall market capitalization, which has dropped nearly 2% to approximately $2.27 trillion. Notably, heavyweights like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Toncoin (TON), and Polkadot (DOT) have all taken a hit, slipping into the red.

Recapping An Eventful Week For Crypto

Over the last week, the world of cryptocurrencies experienced various advancements. Notably, venture capitalists showed a great deal of interest in Celestia and other emerging crypto projects, investing a total of approximately $253 million into these startups. A substantial portion of this investment, around $100 million, was directed towards the Celestia Foundation to bolster its blockchain network. Additionally, Infinex, a decentralized exchange, managed to secure funding amounting to more than $65 million.

During a span of four months, Changpeng Zhao completed his prison term following an admission that Binance, under his leadership as CEO, neglected to implement proper Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures. Simultaneously, Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison due to her role in the downfall of FTX and its affiliated fund, Alameda Research.

In a recent statement, Gary Gensler, the head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), emphasized once more that Bitcoin is not classified as a security. Instead, regulatory documents have labeled it a non-security commodity. Notably, TrueCoin and TrustCoin were forced to settle charges brought by the SEC, which accused them of selling unregistered offerings and investment contracts between November 2020 and April 2023.

In summary, PayPal has unveiled intentions to empower US merchants with the ability to trade cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum directly from their PayPal or Venmo business accounts. This feature, which was initially made available for consumers in 2020, is now being expanded to include business account holders, granting them access to digital assets.

FTX Creditors Only Getting Back 10-25% Of Their Assets

Newly revised bankruptcy documents revealed that FTX creditors will receive only 10% to 25% of their cryptocurrency back. According to FTX creditor Sunil Kavuri, creditors will receive reimbursements according to the petition date, when prices were significantly lower than they are today. The price of BTC was around $16,000 when the petition was filed.

It’s been verified by the debtors, the U.S. Department of Justice, and Judge Kaplan that crypto owners did not fully recover the prices at which they held the assets on the petition date. Many FTX customers are emotionally distressed, experiencing panic attacks, relationship breakdowns, and even suicidal thoughts because their savings, which were kept in FTX, have been stolen and there’s no sign of return yet.

Multiple individuals have concurred with Kavuri, labelling the action as repugnant and shameful, while asserting that investors were swindled not once but twice. Similarly, Kavuri argued that Sam Bankman-Fried breached FTX’s terms of service and infringed upon property rights by utilizing client funds to settle outstanding debts.

It’s clear from the user agreement that the rights to digital assets belong to FTX’s customers, not Sam. However, Sam was found guilty of violating these terms by moving customer funds to settle debts at Alameda and purchasing Robinhood stocks.

Coinbase Forecasts Strong Q4 For Bitcoin

According to a recent report from Coinbase, Bitcoin and the overall crypto market are expected to show great promise during Q4 2024, largely due to anticipated US interest rate reductions and China’s monetary stimulus. These factors might greatly improve Bitcoin’s performance in that quarter. On the other hand, Ethereum (ETH) may encounter numerous obstacles, as demonstrated by the minor effect of spot Ethereum ETFs. This forecast was outlined in the latest findings from Token2049, written jointly by David Duong, Head of Institutional Research, and David Han, an Institutional Research Analyst.

For Q4 2024, we expect a positive development driven by potential US interest rate reductions and substantial financial and monetary boosts from China. These actions could increase market fluidity and potentially bolster the value of Bitcoin.

They also discussed Ethereum’s recent struggles, particularly its rising fees.

The pace of on-chain activities is picking up, marked by an increase in DEX trading volumes and higher gas fees for Ethereum transactions. Despite a generally optimistic outlook among Bitcoin investors, there have been some doubters regarding Ethereum, as it seems that the launch of U.S. spot ETH ETFs two months ago hasn’t significantly boosted its value.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Pulled In $1.1 Billion

Since September 2023, U.S.-based Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have amassed over $1.1 billion, marking the largest weekly investment since July. According to Farside Investors, the influx on September 27 was the most significant for spot Bitcoin ETFs since June 4, totaling approximately $494 million. On the previous day, these ETFs received $366 million. The main contributors to this week’s inflow were BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, and Fidelity® Wise Origin® Bitcoin, with $499 million, $289.5 million, and $206.1 million respectively.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

In simpler terms, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped about 2% in the last day, dipping below $65,000. The start of this week saw a downturn for the world’s leading cryptocurrency, with its liquidity currently being low. Despite a powerful surge at the end of the last week that took it above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), Bitcoin has been having trouble staying above this average since mid-September. It briefly went above it on Tuesday but fell back down again on Wednesday, losing 1.72% to close at $63,167.

On Thursday, Bitcoin surpassed its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) following a surge by bulls that propelled it beyond $65,000, marking a 3.19% growth to close at $65,183. The positive trend continued on Friday as Bitcoin climbed an additional 0.95%, reaching $65,805. However, the upward momentum started to fade during the weekend, with Bitcoin registering minimal growth on Saturday before slipping back into negative territory on Sunday, closing the week at $65,634, representing a decrease of 0.38%. The current trading session has witnessed a strengthening bearish trend, causing Bitcoin to dip below $65,000 and trade at $64,472.

Based on expert opinions, a significant increase in Bitcoin (BTC) value seems improbable while public sentiment remains at its peak. As per Santiment’s analysis, investors anticipating new record highs should temper their expectations. Currently, the bearish forces are dominant and aim to drive BTC prices below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and $64,000. If this occurs, Bitcoin could potentially drop to $62,000 or even $60,000. Conversely, buyers will strive to maintain Bitcoin above the 200-day SMA. Should Bitcoin recover from the moving average, it may attempt to reach the $66,000 mark again. If BTC surpasses $66,000, it could potentially climb to $70,000.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis

Over the weekend, Ethereum (ETH) couldn’t break through $2,700, resulting in a dip with a 1.5% decrease. However, its trading volume significantly increased due to heavy sell-offs over the weekend. Interestingly, most technical indicators predict a potential short-term bullish trend for ETH, despite a slight drop over the past day. The exchange net flow for ETH shows a predominance of withdrawals from exchanges, suggesting that more ETH is being taken out (indicating buyer interest) and reducing selling pressure.

Over the past week, Ethereum (ETH) surpassed its 50-day Simple Moving Average on September 20th and climbed above $2,600 to reach $2,647 by Monday. However, intense selling pressure prevented it from breaching $2,700. On Wednesday, ETH dipped below $2,600 to $2,580 after a nearly 3% fall. But buyers stepped in and raised ETH back above $2,600 on Thursday, causing a 2.1% increase to $2,633. Buyers remained active on Friday, pushing ETH up by 2.4% to $2,696. However, the resistance at $2,700 came into play, causing ETH to lose ground over the weekend, decreasing by 0.72% on Saturday and 0.68% on Sunday, settling at $2,659.

In my analysis, Ethereum (ETH) is maintaining a bearish trend during this session, with its price dipping by 0.93% and hovering around $2,634. Sellers are strategically positioning themselves to push ETH below the $2,600 mark and potentially toward the $2,500 level. A breach of this level might lead ETH to fall further to the $2,400 mark. Conversely, if buyers manage to regain control, Ethereum could attempt to reclaim the $2,700 level. Should it successfully break above this level, we might witness ETH attempting to pierce the significant resistance at $2,850.

Solana (SOL) Price Analysis

Since surpassing its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week, Solana (SOL) has been confined to a limited price range and has not been able to break the $160 mark due to strong selling pressure defending that level. Despite a bullish surge of 5.50% on Tuesday, SOL encountered resistance at its 200-day SMA and fell 3.12% to $148 on Wednesday. However, it bounced back on Thursday, reclaiming the 200-day SMA and $150 mark following a 5.14% increase, and closed at $155.

Over the course of Friday, I observed Solana (SOL) making a push towards $160, peaking at $161. Regrettably, the buying momentum waned, and sellers took advantage at $160. Consequently, SOL dipped below $160 and closed at $157, recording a 1.37% increase. The weekend’s performance for SOL was somewhat inconsistent, with a slight decrease on Saturday to $156. Attempts by sellers to push the price beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) were unsuccessful. On Sunday, buyers reclaimed control and initiated another attempt to surpass $160, pushing SOL as high as $161. However, the selling pressure at $160 thwarted this effort once more, causing SOL to retreat below $160 to $158, recording a 1.10% increase.

At present, the session finds Solana (SOL) dipping 0.76%, as sellers strive to drive SOL below the $155 mark again. Based on the price graph, SOL is confined within a tight range. So far, buyers have struggled to push SOL above $160, while sellers have failed to pull it down below $155. If sellers manage to push SOL below $155, it might fall to $150 or even as low as $140. Conversely, if buyers succeed in breaking the $160 barrier, SOL could escalate to $180 or potentially reach $190.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis

Over the weekend, Dogecoin (DOGE) retreated into the negative territory following its inability to break through the $0.130 mark. Previously, DOGE demonstrated a highly bullish trend throughout the week, with investor confidence significantly improving towards the end. On Thursday, DOGE experienced a nearly 10% increase, soaring from $0.110 to $0.118. Buyers continued to hold control on Friday, pushing DOGE to its daily high of $0.128. However, with sellers active at higher price points, it dipped and eventually closed the day at $0.123 following a nearly 4% rise.

The weekend began with DOGE posting an increase of 4.39% despite facing significant volatility and selling pressure to eventually settle at $0.128. However, with sellers active at this level, buyers lost momentum, and DOGE fell back in the red on Sunday, dropping almost 3% to $0.124. The current session sees DOGE down by just over 1% as sellers look to drive the price below $0.120. Buyers will try to keep DOGE above this level and test $0.130 again. On the other hand, sellers will look to drive DOGE below $0.120 to $0.110.

Dogwifhat (WIF) Price Analysis

In the last seven days, DogeWhat (WIF) has experienced a remarkable surge of 43%, with meme coins spearheading the altcoin upswing that aims to profit from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy change. Post the rate cut, the curiosity around meme coins has resurged, providing a substantial impetus to the market segment. As depicted in the price graph, WIF showed bullish tendencies throughout last week, starting with a 2.95% climb on Monday. The bullish momentum strengthened on Tuesday as WIF soared by more than 14%, reaching $1.99. On Wednesday, sellers tried to halt WIF’s advance above the $2 mark but failed, resulting in WIF hitting $2.01 following a 1.45% increase.

On Thursday, optimism for WIF returned strongly as its value climbed more than 9%, reaching $2.20. Investors even made efforts to drive the price beyond $2.50, but failed, failing to surpass $3.20. The following day, Friday, another effort was made to break through the $2.50 barrier, and while WIF did reach a high of $2.42, it ultimately couldn’t overcome resistance from sellers. As a result, the price dipped back down to $2.26, still managing a slight increase of nearly 3%. On Saturday, WIF continued its upward trend, climbing to $2.37 following an increase of 4.68%.

On Sunday, the price of WIF saw considerable fluctuations, peaking at $2.57 and dipping to $2.25, with both buyers and sellers vying for control. However, in a turn of events, buyers prevailed, leading to an uptick of 3.43% that placed WIF at $2.45, surpassing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). As of now, the ongoing session has seen a slight dip for WIF as sellers attempt to push the price down towards $2. This summary illustrates the dynamic interplay between buyers and sellers over the past day and into the current trading session.

Polkadot (DOT) Price Analysis

On Friday, Polkadot (DOT) failed to sustain its momentum towards $5 as sellers thwarted an attempt to break through the resistance level, causing a downturn in price. Despite a strong bullish trend throughout last week, DOT surged above its 50-day Simple Moving Average on Monday at $4.46 and climbed further to $4.64 on Tuesday, marking a 4% increase. On Wednesday, sellers sought to regain control as DOT underwent intense volatility, but buyers managed to counter the pressure and prevent a significant drop. Optimism returned on Thursday, resulting in a 3.66% rise and settling the price at $4.81.

On Friday, DOT made an effort to surpass $5 but ran out of energy after reaching its peak at $4.96. Consequently, DOT retreated and ended the day at $4.89, marking a 1.66% growth. The buying force faded over the weekend as they failed to push past $5. This led to a 2.04% decline on Saturday and a 0.42% drop on Sunday, with DOT closing at $4.77. Currently, in the ongoing session, DOT is trading in the negative, down by more than 1%, and is priced at $4.72. Sellers are aiming to push DOT below $4.50. If this level breaks, we could see DOT sliding down to $4.40. On a positive note, if buyers regain control, they will try to challenge the $5 barrier again. However, for now, it appears that $5 might be too high a hurdle for DOT.

Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis

Ripple’s price, symbolized by XRP, overcame the barrier at $0.60, experiencing a substantial increase after large XRP investors made significant purchases. As a consequence, XRP has increased approximately 10% over the last week, breaking free from its prolonged stagnation. Inspecting the price chart, we observe that XRP struggled to surpass $0.60 since September 14, when it climbed above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Since then, it had been trading in a limited range of around $0.55 to $0.60. This pattern persisted last week, with XRP recording a minor drop on Friday.

Over the course of the weekend, sentiment shifted positively towards XRP as it experienced gains. Specifically, on Saturday, XRP rose by 4.41% to exceed $0.60 and settle at $0.61. The bullish trend continued on Sunday, with an additional increase of 4.29%, resulting in a closing price of $0.64. The upcoming target now appears to be the $0.65 level. During this session, buyers are maintaining control, causing XRP to rise nearly 1%. This weekend’s surge can be attributed to large XRP investors engaging in a significant buying spree, which led to a substantial price increase. In fact, Ripple whales have acquired over 470 million XRP within the last ten days, with the majority of these purchases taking place over the weekend.

2024-09-30 14:02