French bettor wins $79m on pro-Trump Polymarket bets, government threatens to ban site

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As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial and gambling industries, I find myself intrigued by this fascinating tale of Theo, the French gambler who struck it rich betting on Trump’s presidential win.

A gambler who primarily uses platforms based in France amassed approximately $79 million by wagering on Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency through nine different accounts on Polymarket. This significant gain is as reported by Chainalysis. However, the French government has hinted at a potential prohibition of these decentralized betting sites.

According to the blockchain analysis company, Chainalysis, it was discovered that a solitary French user, managing nine different accounts on the Polymarket platform, is estimated to have earned approximately $78.7 million in profits by wagering on Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President.

1/ There have been numerous reports suggesting that a whale, who is said to be a French national known as Theo, managed four accounts on the Polymarket platform and made substantial bets predicting a Trump victory. Our calculations indicate that he potentially earned approximately $78.7 million from these bets.

— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) November 6, 2024

To begin with, an earlier report by crypto.news indicated that two traders, specifically Theo4 and Fredi9999, made approximately $22 million in winnings by predicting Donald Trump’s election victory through the use of no less than four separate trading accounts.

As a significant player in Polymarket, Theo4’s trading activities drew attention and questions, with certain experts expressing doubts about market manipulation. Nevertheless, Polymarket asserted that no manipulation occurred, explaining that the trader’s bets were based on personal opinions rather than an intention to control market movements.

Towards the end of October, Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, dismissed accusations by The New York Times that the prediction platform is biased politically. Coplan referred to the Ethereum-based betting service as an unbiased source of alternative data, thriving on the excitement surrounding elections. This statement came in response to a recent article in The New York Times which alleged Polymarket of manipulation based on political views and branded it merely as a “gambling site powered by crypto.

“One trader to rule them all”

On November 6th, a fresh development unfolded in a particular thread when Chainalysis, a blockchain analysis company based in New York, revealed an additional five accounts linked to the same trader. They explained that these accounts are interrelated due to their shared patterns of funding, the timing of transactions, and deposits to specific exchange addresses where cashouts occurred.

According to Chainalysis’ estimates, the trader amassed approximately 79 million dollars collectively across all their accounts. Previously, Theo4 has refuted any claims of political motivations. Instead, he highlighted that his trades were solely financially motivated, with the main objective being “earning profits.

At present, it appears that France’s gaming regulatory body may prohibit Polymarket. According to news from local sources, the National Gaming Authority is examining the platform’s activities to ensure they align with French gambling regulations. Nonetheless, an official announcement regarding this issue has not been made yet.

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2024-11-07 20:32