From $100k to $250k? Analyzing Bitcoin’s bull market signals

As a seasoned investor and cryptocurrency enthusiast with over a decade of experience in the financial markets, I find myself constantly amazed by the ever-evolving world of Bitcoin. The recent soaring past the $100K mark has left me both awestruck and intrigued about what lies ahead for this revolutionary digital asset.

It’s surprising how rapidly Bitcoin has risen in value, surpassing $100K, although it has dipped a bit recently.

Moving into the year 2025, a key question arises: What does the future hold for Bitcoin (BTC)? Is it on the verge of collapse, or is it headed towards $150,000–$200,000 in the near future? Are there any reliable methods to foresee its direction, or are we merely speculating?

As I’ve noticed, the fog seems to clear when we look at on-chain and technical signals, all while keeping an eye on broader market trends. In this article, let’s delve into these three aspects of analysis to gain a clearer understanding of Bitcoin’s potential future direction.

Extreme greed, rising active addresses, and record hash rate

Presently, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 78, suggesting an Extreme Greed state. This usually hints at possible short-term highs, but in prolonged bull market conditions, such intense greed can coincide with dramatic, pre-peak price surges.

Usually, such situations follow temporary drops in the market caused by excessive enthusiasm, and it looks like that’s happening right now with Bitcoin’s value hovering near the $100K mark.

The growing count of active bitcoin addresses currently stands at 855,153 as of December 8, implying a surge in user engagement and curiosity towards the Bitcoin network.

By December 9, 2024, the hash rate of Bitcoin is approximately 850.70 Exahash per second (EH/s). This figure represents a substantial bounce back from recent ups and downs but still falls short of its peak record of 949.98 EH/s, achieved on November 26, 2024. Even though the current hash rate hasn’t returned to this all-time high (ATH), its consistent strength suggests faith among miners and underscores network security – positive signs for future growth. It’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s price often mirrors the hash rate; when miners are optimistic about price increases, they’re less inclined to sell.

Weekly Golden Cross signals bull market with $150K-$250K potential

As a crypto investor, I always keep a close eye on the Golden Cross event. This happens when my 50-week moving average surges above my 200-week moving average, signaling a shift from bearish to bullish trends. Historically, this pattern has often indicated the beginning of significant long-term bull markets and the end of extended bearish phases in the market. It’s like seeing a green light after a long tunnel, signifying potential prosperity ahead!

In the past, a similar signal was triggered when Bitcoin bounced back from the 2018 crypto market crash and peaked at its record high of $69,000 in 2021 after the recovery.

As we’ve seen in past Bitcoin market cycles, a similar pattern emerged in early 2024 and was followed by an impressive surge towards its record high of $103,647. Notably, when weekly Golden Crosses have occurred during bull markets, they were often followed by returns ranging from 300% to 600%.

If this trend continues, it’s possible that Bitcoin could soar to between $150,000 and $250,000 before the next significant downturn in its pricing cycle. However, the next instance of a “Golden Cross” might not occur until 2026 or 2027, given that Bitcoin follows its typical pattern of growth, retraction, and stabilization to completion.

RSI signals overbought conditions, hints at pullback or consolidation

As I delve into my analysis each week, I find the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 74.47. This reading falls within overbought territory, suggesting that the asset might be due for a temporary correction or a brief phase of sideways movement, rather than signaling an immediate trend reversal.

Looking back at past market trends, I’ve noticed that periods of strong growth, or bull cycles, have often been marked by RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings similar to what we’re seeing now. Historically, these peaks have been followed by temporary dips, only for the market to bounce back and reach new highs once again.

2021 saw a bull cycle where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) often reached levels comparable to those before it surpassed 90, triggering a major Bitcoin correction afterwards. If Bitcoin continues its recent consolidation near $100K and the RSI falls back to a more balanced range of 60-65, we might expect another bullish phase to follow.

As a researcher studying market dynamics, I’d put it this way: A modest adjustment of 10% to 20%, often referred to as a ‘correction’ or a ‘sideways trend’, could provide an opportunity for markets to rebalance before resuming their upward trajectory. To give you an idea, a 10% correction from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $103,647 would approximately bring its price down to around $93,282.

Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Bands signal key support and potential cooling

Utilizing Fibonacci Retracement levels in technical analysis, these levels are drawn to pinpoint possible areas of support and resistance, suggesting where a price may pause or reverse direction before resuming its overall movement. According to the graph provided:

Key Levels:

$71,858 (0.618): Major retracement level, acting as a strong support zone (a 30.67% pullback from the all-time high of $103,647).
$103,135 (0.786): Significant resistance zone, near the all-time high.

As a researcher studying Bitcoin’s market dynamics, I find myself observing an interesting pattern. Currently, Bitcoin’s price hovers slightly below the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting robust bullish sentiments. Yet, this positioning also hints at the possibility of overextension, as prices tend to correct or stabilize when they deviate substantially from the midline – which is represented by the 20-week simple moving average, standing at approximately $71,858 in the current market context.

If the price drops to around $71,858 or hovers near its current level at $99,249 for a while, this could be considered a typical pause in the market’s momentum, according to the Bollinger Band analysis, and it might signal potential future growth.

Visualizing Bitcoin’s market behavior through key indicators

To provide a clearer visual understanding of Bitcoin’s market trends, let’s examine the chart below, which incorporates a top bar coded in colors. The alternating purple and green sections on the chart indicate periods where the market is oversold or experiencing bullish divergence, respectively. These colors signify strong buying activity that aligns with Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought levels, indicating a bullish momentum.

In the second section of the graph, you can observe trends related to the overall market structure, such as periods of fluctuation, upward momentum (bullish), or downward trend (bearish). Looking at the chart, you’ll notice that clusters of green bars indicate a bullish phase, which aligns with the observed breakout pattern.

Subsequently, the primary oscillator showcases the Awesome Oscillator featuring divergences and turning points, where the upward-pointing green spikes indicate a position above zero and the downward-brown areas below signify bullish trends and supportive pivot levels.

Below the Average Oscillator, another oscillator shows signs of momentum that are quite comparable. When the bars are green and sit above the zero line, it indicates increasing momentum moving upwards and a strong leaning towards the bullish side.

Potential crypto space developments in 2025

Following the reduction in supply after halving, a surge in both retail and institutional investment might be driven by companies such as MicroStrategy opting to store Bitcoin as part of their strategic reserves. This could potentially lead to unprecedented levels of demand for Bitcoin.

It’s expected that the number of institutional investors participating in Bitcoin may increase significantly, leading to a more stable trend in its price fluctuations. This increased participation, however, could make Bitcoin’s performance more closely tied to traditional financial markets.

The influence of Bitcoin (currently approximately 55%) might grow more prominent as investors lean towards viewing it as “digital gold” compared to other cryptocurrencies. This trend could intensify significantly if there is increased regulation focusing on lesser-known tokens.

The expansion of Bitcoin wallets is likely to persist, especially as its usage expands in developing countries. This is because people are increasingly using Bitcoin as a protective measure against the depreciation of their native currencies.

Large businesses might initiate cross-border transactions using Bitcoin, particularly in areas experiencing high inflation or de-dollarization tendencies. In such instances, central banks could potentially show more interest in Bitcoin as a potential reserve currency.

As a crypto investor, I’m keeping a close eye on global regulatory trends, particularly in key markets like the U.S., EU, and UAE. It seems that these regions are leaning towards crypto-friendly regulations, which could pave the way for broader adoption and growth. However, it’s also important to note that some jurisdictions might tighten their grip on decentralized finance and self-custody to maintain control over their financial systems. This means I need to stay informed and adapt my strategies accordingly.

Closing thoughts

In a thrilling blast of enthusiasm, Bitcoin surpassed the $100K mark, an astounding feat that left many in awe. Various technical indicators, such as the weekly Golden Cross and RSI, hint at the potential for additional growth, with estimates suggesting a possible increase to between $150K and $250K during this bull market cycle.

Instead, it’s possible that a phase of stabilization or adjustment could offer a solid base for future market movements. By the year 2025, Bitcoin might attain something previously thought to be almost unattainable—becoming a significant force within the international financial landscape.

2024-12-10 02:05