From Biden to Trump: predicting the next president and making money with decentralized markets

This text discusses the current betting sentiment for the 2024 US presidential election on decentralized prediction markets, with a focus on Polymarket. The Republican Party is favored to win the nomination, and there are predictions for swing states that favor the Republicans as well. Decentralized prediction markets offer opportunities to make money through becoming a liquidity provider or placing direct bets. However, these methods come with high risks, and it’s crucial to trade cautiously and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Always do thorough research and consider seeking advice from financial experts before participating in these markets.

As a researcher interested in the latest developments in the world of decentralized finance (DeFi), I’ve been intrigued by the growing buzz around decentralized prediction markets for the 2024 elections. These platforms offer an innovative way for individuals to express their political insights and potentially profit from their accurate predictions.

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As a crypto investor, I’ve often pondered if it’s possible to predict the outcome of an event and reap the rewards of my insight. Decentralized prediction markets provide an answer to this intriguing question. Lately, these markets have experienced remarkable expansion, especially with the 2024 U.S. presidential elections just around the corner.

In June 2021, Polymarket, a renowned prediction market platform that operates on cryptocurrency, witnessed an remarkable increase in transaction activity. As reported by Dune Analytics, this platform recorded over $100 million in trading volume during this month, setting a new record for the highest monthly volume since its launch year.

As a researcher studying betting trends on Polymarket, I’ve observed that the surge in wagers didn’t falter even in July, with an astounding $9.3 million worth of bets placed just on the first day. Remarkably, this daily volume surpassed the monthly volumes recorded last year, which fluctuated between a low of $3 million and a high of $8 million.

Between January and May 2024, Polymarket’s monthly sales fluctuated between $40 million and $60 million, representing a significant surge of 7 to 12 fold compared to the same period in the previous year. In June, an all-time high of $111 million worth of bets were transacted on the platform.

From Biden to Trump: predicting the next president and making money with decentralized markets

One of the most widely-followed competitions on Polymarket is the “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” which has amassed wagers totaling over $208 million since its start. At present, Donald Trump holds a strong lead with odds of approximately 66%, while Joe Biden trails behind at about 21%.

From Biden to Trump: predicting the next president and making money with decentralized markets

Researchers and financial advisors at Bernstein observe that platforms like Polymarket, which utilize blockchain technology for election markets, are enhancing their effectiveness. In a recent communication to clients, they emphasized how the decentralized nature of Polymarket contributes to greater transparency and increased liquidity in these markets. Additionally, they underscored the growing recognition of cryptocurrency’s importance in political spheres due to platforms like Polymarket.

Let’s take a closer look at these popular platforms, examining their inner workings, highlighting significant wagers, identifying key players, and discussing opportunities to join in and possibly benefit – all without actually making bets.

What are decentralized prediction markets and how do they work?

As a market analyst, I would describe decentralized prediction markets as follows: In these platforms, individuals have the opportunity to place wagers on the results of actual events using the innovative technology of blockchains. Essentially, it allows for peer-to-peer betting without the need for intermediaries.

As a researcher studying these markets, I would describe them as follows: I’ve discovered that these markets function on decentralized networks, which means there isn’t a single entity overseeing the transactions. Instead, they utilize smart contracts – self-executing agreements with their terms encoded in code. Consequently, all deals are executed transparently, securely, and free from manipulation.

One common decentralized prediction market is Polymarket. Operating on Ethereum‘s Layer 2 network, Polygon (MATIC), Polymarket enables users to place wagers on various events, including politics, entertainment, and sports, using the stablecoin USDC. This setup guarantees ample liquidity and transaction stability.

As a market analysis expert, I’d describe it this way: In Polymarket, I serve as a liquidity provider by supplying on-chain market liquidity using tokenized shares similar to Uniswap’s model. Users then engage in trading these shares to express their bets in a simple and automated fashion.

As a researcher, I’ve discovered an intriguing investment strategy that enables me to capitalize on my insights and predictions regarding specific events. By purchasing “Yes” contracts, I can benefit financially if my prediction comes true, while incurring losses if it doesn’t. This approach offers the opportunity to turn my knowledge into tangible gains in the market.

In the realm of decentralized prediction markets, Polymarket isn’t the sole provider. Competitors such as Augur and Hedeghog offer comparable services, enabling users to place wagers on diverse events.

Augur, for instance, operates on the Ethereum blockchain and uses a native token (REP) for betting. Hedgehog is another emerging platform, leveraging the same principles of decentralized betting with a focus on user-friendly interfaces and diverse market offerings.

Popular bets on polymarket

There’s been a great deal of excitement surrounding the 2024 US presidential election, resulting in heightened action on Polymarket. In this piece, we’ll explore some of the most widely-discussed wagers and the insights they provide regarding public opinion.

Biden’s lackluster debate performance

As a crypto investor following the political landscape, I observed a significant shift in betting trends on Polymarket after the first presidential debate on June 27, 2024. My own analysis of Joe Biden’s lackluster performance, which was widely criticized as one of the weakest since the era of televised debates began, triggered a wave of bets against him.

Prior to the debate, Joe Biden held a strong probability of 91% for securing the Democratic nomination. But after his debate performance, this likelihood dipped to 71%. Approximately $21.2 million was wagered on Biden, while an impressive $5.06 million was placed on Kamala Harris, who has gained a following of around 11% so far.

From Biden to Trump: predicting the next president and making money with decentralized markets

At the same time, Biden’s chances of withdrawing from the presidential race noticeably climbed from 19% preceding the debate to 44% by July 1. His probability has since decreased slightly to 35%, but the fluctuations underscore the unpredictability surrounding his campaign.

From Biden to Trump: predicting the next president and making money with decentralized markets

As a crypto investor following the political landscape, I can tell you that among Republicans, there’s strong conviction Trump will secure the nomination. Betting markets reflect this sentiment, with approximately $6.6 million wagered on his candidacy. This represents a staggering 99% probability for Trump, in stark contrast to the unpredictable nature of Biden’s campaign.

From Biden to Trump: predicting the next president and making money with decentralized markets

Swing states predictions

In the context of elections, swing states hold significant importance as their outcomes can influence the final result. Recent data from Polymarket’s prediction polls suggest that the Republicans may secure victories in these crucial states.

According to current predictions, the Republican Party is expected to secure victories in several key states with high probabilities. These include Nevada (71% chance), Michigan (53% chance), Pennsylvania (58% chance), Arizona (73% chance), Wisconsin (56% chance), Georgia (80% chance), and North Carolina (83% chance).

As a researcher examining betting data on the upcoming elections, I’ve found that the Republican Party has garnered significant support with a total of over $3 million in wagers placed on their predicted victories in these key states.

As a researcher studying global affairs, I’ve come across an intriguing forecast. There’s approximately a 56% likelihood that Israel will launch an invasion of Lebanon prior to September. This potential military action could further complicate the intricate geopolitical landscape around the world.

How to make money from decentralized betting markets? 

Decentralized prediction markets present enticing chances for financial gain, yet they carry significant risks. Here’s a simple and clear way to capitalize on these platforms, accompanied by essential guidance.

Becoming a liquidity provider

As a crypto investor, I’ve found that one profitable way to earn returns on platforms like Polymarket is by acting as a liquidity provider. This means putting up funds for other traders to use in making trades, which in turn generates fees for me. Essentially, I provide the market with the necessary liquidity, allowing smooth transactions for all involved parties. It’s an effective method for passive income in the crypto sphere.

  • Deposit USDC: You can deposit USDC into the platform’s liquidity pool.
  • Earn fees: By providing liquidity, you earn a share of the trading fees whenever users place bets.
  • Automated market maker (AMM): The platform uses an AMM model, ensuring that your funds are used to facilitate trades and bets efficiently.

Using this technique, you can generate a consistent earnings flow without relying on the outcome of specific events. It’s less risky than traditional betting since it doesn’t require putting money at stake for each event.

Making direct bets

You can earn money by betting on the odds of specific events taking place.

  • Choose an event: Select an event you want to bet on, such as the outcome of the presidential election.
  • Analyze the odds: Consider the current odds and make your prediction.
  • Place your bet: Bet an amount you are comfortable with, knowing that if your prediction is correct, you can earn a significant return.

In addition to Polymarket, a number of other prediction market platforms operate on a decentralized basis. Much like Polymarket, these platforms enable users to either supply liquidity or make direct wagers on an array of prospective occurrences.

These prospects hold significant rewards, but they carry great risks. Should fortune not smile upon you, potential losses could be quite considerable.

To ensure success in trading, it’s essential to approach each investment with care and avoid risking more money than you’re willing to part with. Conduct extensive research and seriously consider consulting financial professionals for guidance before making any major moves.

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2024-07-03 22:25