JPMorgan Predicts 60% Chance of Recession: Trump’s Tariffs to Blame?

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In a note that sounds more like a horror movie title than an economic forecast — “There Will Be Blood” — JPMorgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman and his team dropped the mic on Trump’s tariff hike. Spoiler alert: it’s the biggest tax increase since 1968. 🎬💸

Tariffs: The Gift That Keeps on Taking

JPMorgan’s analysts, armed with charts and a sense of impending doom, pointed out that this 22-percentage point tariff hike is basically the economic equivalent of throwing a grenade into a china shop. Retaliation from trading partners? Check. Plummeting business sentiment? Check. Global supply chains in shambles? Double check. 🚨

“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified — through retaliation, a slide in U.S. business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions,” the economists said, probably while sipping coffee and staring at a graph that looks like a rollercoaster. While there’s some wiggle room for fiscal policy easing, JPMorgan’s betting on a recession this year. Global economy? You’re invited too. 🌍📉

Recession Roulette: Spin the Wheel!

JPMorgan hasn’t updated its economic forecasts yet, but let’s be real — full implementation of these tariffs is going to cause chaos. “We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the U.S. and possibly global economy into recession this year,” they said, probably while crossing their fingers and hoping for the best. Mild downturn? Maybe. Unpredictable mess? Definitely. 🎰🤷‍♀️

Trade Wars and Supply Chain Woes

JPMorgan’s also worried about the long-term effects of restrictive trade policies and reduced immigration. Translation: the U.S. economy might be in for a slow, painful decline. And let’s not forget, this tariff hike is bigger than the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930. Back then, the U.S. economy was less globalized. Now? It’s like setting off fireworks in a crowded room. 🎆🌎

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Conclusion: Buckle Up, Buttercup

JPMorgan’s 60% recession probability is basically a neon sign flashing “DANGER AHEAD.” Trump’s tariffs might not cause immediate Armageddon, but the long-term effects on business sentiment, global supply chains, and U.S. economic growth could be a disaster. The global economy? It’s on thin ice. 🧊🌐

As the full impact of these tariffs unfolds, businesses and policymakers better keep their eyes peeled. Because if JPMorgan’s right, we’re all in for a bumpy ride. 🎢📉

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2025-04-04 16:48