As a seasoned political analyst with decades of experience, I have witnessed countless debates and elections unfold, and I must say, this one intrigues me. The Polymarket predictions for the second U.S. presidential debate suggest Vice President Kamala Harris as the winner, with an impressive 75% probability. This is a significant shift from the 38% support former president Donald Trump had just three days ago.
On the decentralized forecasting platform, Polymarket, traders anticipate that surveys following the second U.S. presidential debate will indicate Vice President Kamala Harris as the victor among the Democratic candidates.
On Polymarket, traders place wagers on a variety of subjects with definite outcomes, such as Elon Musk potentially joining a crypto-friendly Donald Trump’s cabinet, or the outcome of the upcoming election. Although most predictions indicate that Trump will emerge victorious in the election, many traders believe post-debate polls will tilt in favor of Kamala Harris.
Trump vs. Harris for second debate
At the moment, wagers on Polymarket indicate that Harris is predicted to be declared the victor of the debate with a probability of 75%. Conversely, bets for Donald Trump have dropped significantly from approximately 38% on September 6th, now standing at around 25% as of September 9th.
The second presidential debate between U.S. candidates is scheduled to broadcast on ABC on Tuesday, September 10, 2024. In the first debate held in July, former Democratic candidate Joe Biden had a poor performance. Later, the incumbent U.S. president stepped down from the race a few weeks afterwards, backing his vice president Kamala Harris instead.
In simple terms, both campaigns are certain they’ll do better than each other. But, people trading on Polymarket anticipate that post-debate surveys might suggest Joe Biden (Harris’ running mate) as the debate winner against President Trump.
How will the bet resolve?
If the Ipsos/538 poll indicates that Kamala Harris triumphs in the debate, the wager on the debate’s outcome, as predicted by Polymarket, will favor the Democratic candidate.
If the poll suggests Trump’s victory, then the wager will be settled accordingly. If the Ipsos/538 poll points to a tie, a 50-50 outcome will take place.
Traders have wagered so far around $150,000 on the outcome.
Polymarket predicts Trump to win election
Ahead of the debate, many polls suggests a close race for the upcoming election.
In summary, according to both The New York Times/Siena poll and Polymarket, the contest for the November 4, 2024 vote appears very close, with Trump having a slight edge over Harris (52% to 47%) among traders on Polymarket.
On Polymarket, the total bet on who wins stands at over $844 million.
Read More
Sorry. No data so far.
2024-09-09 19:04