Polymarket: 78% of users wager on 25bp Fed rate cut

As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of market experience under my belt, I’ve seen plenty of economic cycles and their impact on the digital asset landscape. The Fed’s potential pivot towards a more accommodative monetary policy has always been a catalyst for growth in the crypto space. Historically, Bitcoin and its peers have thrived during periods of low-interest rates, as increased liquidity fuels investor appetite for high-risk, high-reward assets like cryptocurrencies.


Investors who specialize in policymaking predictions (i.e., polymarket bettors) have collectively wagered more than $11 million on their beliefs about how actively the Federal Reserve might adjust its monetary policy in September.

Approximately 78% of Polymarket’s users wagered 1.5 million dollars on the possibility of a 0.25% decrease in interest rates. The second-largest group, accounting for 21%, put down a collective total of 2.4 million dollars on a reduction of 0.50% or greater.

According to Polymarket’s data analysis, approximately 4% of the total bets were placed on either “No change” or “25 points or more increase.” Despite Powell’s comments suggesting these outcomes were improbable, traders collectively staked $7 million on these two possibilities.

Based on the remarks made during his Jackson Hole speech last month, it’s widely anticipated that the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce interest rate reductions on either September 17th or 18th. As reported by crypto.news, Fed chair Jerome Powell suggested that the time for policy modifications has come into play.

Instead, Powell didn’t give any hints about the pace at which the Fed might adjust its strategy. As stated by the regulatory body, it will be the upcoming data analysis and careful consideration of risks that will determine the central bank’s ultimate decision, scheduled for this month.

Is the Fed’s pivot good for Bitcoin and crypto?

It is generally believed among the public that Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market will experience growth if the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates. Lowering interest rates often leads to increased liquidity in various assets because investors are encouraged to borrow funds and invest more aggressively.

The potential shift in policy by the Federal Reserve might materialize during the final quarter of the year, a timeframe that traditionally favors Bitcoin and other digital assets.

In contrast to the typical bearish trend during August and September, QCP Capital emphasized that October historically exhibits the “most robust bullish tendency.” Over the past nine Octobers, Bitcoin has averaged a return of approximately 22.9%.

According to a message sent by Fideum’s co-founder Darren Franceschini to crypto.news on September 3rd, he concurred that if the Federal Reserve decides to lower interest rates, there is evidence from historical data and general market sentiment suggesting that Bitcoin prices may surge.

As a crypto investor, I’m keeping a close eye on the signals coming from the Federal Reserve hinting at a potential dovish pivot. Historically, Bitcoin (and perhaps other cryptos) has thrived in environments with accommodative monetary policy, so if rate cuts do materialize, we could see similar upward momentum.

Darren Franceschini, Fideum co-founder

Despite Franceschini’s call for cautious optimism, there is anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this month. However, Bitfinex analysts have issued a word of caution about a potential 20% decrease in Bitcoin. On the other hand, QCP Capital foresees that BTC could find support at $54,000 before experiencing another surge in value.

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2024-09-03 17:31