As a seasoned crypto investor with over two decades of market experience under my belt, I find myself intrigued by these recent developments in Polymarket. The revelation that a single French trader has been wagering substantial amounts on Trump’s election odds raises eyebrows, especially amidst concerns about potential manipulation. However, it’s crucial to remember that markets are often influenced by the collective beliefs and actions of individuals, and this case seems to be no exception.
According to reports, the prediction market Polymarket has connected a specific French trader with a cluster of accounts that consistently wagered on the chances of Donald Trump’s victory. This revelation has sparked speculation about possible attempts at market manipulation.
It has been discovered by Polymarket that a single French trader is responsible for multiple accounts, which have made substantial wagers predicting Donald Trump’s success in the approaching U.S. presidential election.
Based on a report by The New York Times, it’s been confirmed that one experienced trader with a background in financial services manages four accounts: Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie. Together, these accounts hold approximately $28 million in wagers linked to the chances of Trump being elected.
It has been noted that there were queries regarding whether these accounts might have boosted Trump’s chances in an artificial way. However, according to Polymarket, they did not discover any signs of manipulation. Instead, they highlighted that the trader was simply expressing a personal viewpoint about the election by taking a directional stance.
Polymarket sees surge in big bets ahead of upcoming election
Polymarket additionally disclosed that they had been in contact with the trader during an investigation carried out jointly with external specialists, such as Nardello & Company – a firm specializing in investigations. They stated that these accounts were employed to make modest wagers, aiming to collect contracts without causing significant price fluctuations.
During this time, a mystery user under the name Ly67890 made an enormous wager on Kamala Harris in the prediction market. This trader invested $2 million in “Yes” shares for the Democratic presidential candidate, which was 11 days before the U.S. elections. The data from Polymarket reveals this transaction. It’s worth noting that most of the bets placed were less than $1,000, and only six were valued above $100,000.
At the moment, according to the latest polls, Donald Trump is ahead on Polymarket with approximately 62.2% backing, whereas Kamala Harris has experienced a drop in support since October’s start, now standing at about 38%.
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2024-10-24 17:32