Polymarket punters pile bets on Biden’s dropout

As an experienced financial analyst, I’ve closely followed the political betting market on Polymarket, and the recent surge in odds of President Joe Biden dropping out of the elections is a concerning development.

Following a New York Times article, the probability of President Joe Biden withdrawing from the elections, according to Polymarket, surged above 70%.

On Wednesday’s early morning, Polymarket wagerers put their money on a roughly 55% probability that Joe Biden would abandon his presidential campaign. However, these odds significantly enhanced after news broke that Biden was pondering over his future role in the White House post-November elections.

As a crypto investor following the political landscape, I’ve come across some intriguing news. According to an anonymous source close to the Biden camp, as reported by The New York Times, President Biden holds doubts about defeating Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Shortly after this revelation, White House spokesperson Andrew Bates refuted the claims, asserting that the story was unfounded on X.

The assertion is completely unfounded. Had the New York Times allowed us additional time beyond the allotted 7 minutes, we would have voiced our objections.

— Andrew Bates (@AndrewJBates46) July 3, 2024

There have been concerns about Joe Biden’s health on various occasions, fueling interest in the “Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race?” market offered by Polymarket. With more than $10 million in bets placed so far, this topic is a significant focus for wagerers.

Prior to the controversial CNN debate that numerous political pundits from various ideologies deemed detrimental to Biden’s campaign, wagering action suggested a probability of between 20% and 35% that he would drop out of the presidential race.

“The New York Times article stated that if he had two more occurrences like that, the situation would be significantly different for him.”

Polymarket has emerged as a leading decentralized betting platform where users can place wagers on real-life outcomes. Akin to this concept was observed during the Bitcoin (BTC) ETF approval process, and current markets cater to various events, including potential approvals for Ethereum (ETH) spot funds.

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2024-07-03 21:28