Polymarket Whale’s $3.6M Bet on Tyson Backfires

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As an experienced analyst with a keen eye for trends and a knack for predicting outcomes, I’ve witnessed my fair share of high-stakes bets paying off and others falling flat. The story of “zxgngl” and their $3.6 million wager on Mike Tyson’s victory in the boxing match against Jake Paul is a prime example of the thrill and risk that comes with such ventures.

The well-known high-stakes gambler known as “zxgngl” from Polymarket, who previously pocketed approximately $11 million by wagering on Donald Trump’s triumph in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, experienced a substantial defeat with their bet on the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul boxing match last Friday evening.

As we approached the fight, the betting market on Polymarket indicated that Jake Paul had approximately a two-thirds (63.5%) chance of emerging victorious, Tyson had around a one-third (29.5%) likelihood, and there was an 8.5% possibility that the match would end in a draw.

Instead, let’s say: Zxgngl strongly backed Tyson by investing $3.6 million on his victory. This investment was made by purchasing over 11 million shares of the possible win outcome at an average price of 33 cents per share. In essence, this means that Tyson had about a one-third chance of winning.

As an analyst, I must say that, despite Tyson’s extensive boxing background, it was Paul who orchestrated the entire bout from its inception. At 27 and a former influencer transitioning into boxing, Paul demonstrated remarkable control throughout the match. On the other hand, as the fight unfolded, I could see Tyson, now aged 58, growing visibly tired. In contrast, Paul consistently kept up a brisk tempo, landing punch after punch for eight consecutive two-minute rounds.

By the end of the match, Jake Paul was awarded a unanimous decision victory, and Tyson’s hopes of securing a win were dashed.

Consequently, Tyson’s $3.6 million wager by zxgngl led to a substantial loss, reducing their earlier $11 million earnings by almost a third. However, this setback didn’t affect zxgngl’s standing on the Polymarket platform significantly, as they still rank fourth among the top earners, according to Polymarket’s leaderboard.

The battle drew a substantial amount of interest, accumulating a total bet volume of $63 million across all markets, positioning it among the busiest trading events on Polymarket.

Despite zxgngl’s wager not being successful, the massive turnout for the event on the platform solidifies Polymarket’s reputation as a premier destination for prediction markets associated with major events.

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2024-11-16 23:00