Solana’s $4,390 Dream: Will the Cup & Handle Pattern Deliver?

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  • Cup and handle pattern promises a 20x rally ahead for Solana if the price can break above $200
  • Token highlighted bearish momentum in recent months, with it possibly not yet ready to move higher

Bitcoin [BTC], at the time of writing, was being mirrored by Solana [SOL] on the higher timeframe price charts.

In a post on X, technical analyst Trader Tardigrade observed that both Bitcoin and Solana have been forming cup and handle patterns on the monthly charts. In fact, the former had broken out a few months ago, while SOL has been waiting patiently for its turn.

Using the depth of the cup and handle pattern, the breakout target can be predicted. The analyst demonstrated that Bitcoin could hit $230,000 upon its breakout, while Solana would target $4,390 once the breakout is achieved. When might it achieve its move? Well, the Solana Spot ETF went live on 2 July. Offered by REX-Osprey, it saw $11.4 million in inflows on 3 July.

This could spur Solana beyond the $200-mark, which is when the breakout from the cup and handle pattern would begin.

Solana’s hype season has not arrived yet!

Examining the number of active addresses, AMBCrypto found that there was a massive spike in on-chain activity that began in October 2024 and lasted till December. This coincided with the sizeable rally from $146 to $264 in November. During that time, Solana memecoins were doing extremely well too.

Although it resembled a casino with very few winners, it has been a highly populated casino nevertheless. Or perhaps a gold rush, with traders rushing to find and cash in on the most recent trends. In any case, the active addresses have now dropped off from the levels seen six months ago.

The number of large holders with more than 10k SOL rapidly increased in March and April 2024, when the price was at $140.

This number has remained steady around the 5.1k-mark for most of 2025. Another surge in the number of large holders could be a sign of confidence from large investors.

The weekly chart reflected a bearish structure. The higher low at $175, set in December 2024, was breached in February and was retested as resistance during May’s rally. The RSI agreed with this bias, as it has remained below the neutral 50-mark since February. This suggested that the momentum was predominantly bearish.

Over the past two months, the RSI has hovered around the 50-mark to suggest that bearish momentum had waned. However, the bulls were not strong enough to drive the price higher. This was reflected in the dwindling weekly trading volume since May – Another sign of a market in a pullback phase.

If SOL can climb back above $190, the weekly structure would shift bullishly once more.

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2025-07-08 10:45