Spot Bitcoin ETF buying becomes an avalanche

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As an analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets under my belt, I must say that what we are witnessing in the Bitcoin market right now is nothing short of extraordinary. The sheer magnitude of the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in just these last two days is a testament to the growing institutional interest in this asset class.

Following the third largest dollar-equivalent Bitcoin inflow on Wednesday, Thursday experienced the second largest inflow as U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs bought another 896.3 million dollars’ worth of Bitcoin. As these substantial amounts of Bitcoin are being absorbed from the market, the price of Bitcoin is building tension and appears poised to surge upward.

Two days of massive buying

Over the past two days, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have bought approximately 24,000 Bitcoins, worth about $1.72 billion. This is over fifty-three times greater than the daily mining output of around 450 Bitcoins.

It is also good to bear in mind that this amount of Bitcoin purchasing is just from the 9 U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, with the lion’s share of this coming from Blackrock’s IBIT ETF.

Considering that the majority of retail investors haven’t joined in yet, and most institutional investors are still observing Bitcoin from a distance, it’s not hard to envision the massive influx of funds pouring into this asset over the coming years, as those who have invested so far are generally only just testing the waters.

Market eerily quiet

Given all that’s been discussed, the crypto market seems unusually tranquil at present. The price of BTC hovers around $72,300 and remains stable, while most other cryptocurrencies are in the negative. Since today marks the end of October, it’s possible that the market is anticipating the monthly closing price for Bitcoin, potentially waiting for a significant movement before making any major moves itself.

A shallow retracement thus far

The recent drop in Bitcoin’s price has been relatively minor compared to historical patterns, as it hasn’t dipped significantly below the first Fibonacci retracement level. This level, at 0.236, seems to be acting as a strong support for the price. However, there are signs of heavy ETF buying which suggests the price could stay high. The chart shows that reaching a new all-time high is just about a 2% increase away.

Explosive price action going into next week?

The weekly chart is looking fantastic. Yes, there is currently rejection from the all-time high, but the breakout of the bull flag looks definitive, and it really must be just a matter of time now. 

Towards the base of the graph, the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) shows an inclining line, following a multi-month decline in trend. The situation appears quite promising.

Additionally, October comes to an end on Thursday. If the monthly chart concludes near its current level, it might trigger a powerful surge in prices as we move into the following week.

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2024-10-31 14:03