As a seasoned crypto investor and political observer with a knack for deciphering market trends, I find myself intrigued by these shifting betting odds on Polymarket and Kalshi regarding the 2024 presidential election.
With the 2024 presidential election drawing nearer, the betting probabilities on Polymarket indicate a notable swing towards Kamala Harris.
During the recent weekend, the likelihood of Donald Trump winning decreased to approximately 57.7%, according to a specific platform. Simultaneously, the probability of Kamala Harris winning rose from 33% to 42.3%.
Following a poll conducted by Ann Selzer of the Des Moines Register in Iowa, it appears that Harris is currently ahead of Trump by three points. Interestingly, this is the case despite Trump having won the state in both 2016 and 2020 elections.
On another forecasting site, Kalshi, the difference between Trump and Harris has significantly lessened. Currently, Trump stands at a probability of 54%, while Harris follows closely at 46%. In contrast to earlier in the week, when Trump held a substantial advantage of 65% to 35%, this is a notable shift in their standings.
Prediction websites such as Polymarket and Kalshi function uniquely compared to regular polls. Rather than inquiring about whom individuals intend to vote for, these platforms enable users to wager on their predictions regarding the winner. The odds displayed on these sites are a reflection of the collective bets placed and the general sentiment among the platform’s user base.
Over the past few months, Polymarket has handled wagers totaling more than $3 billion regarding the presidential election. Notably, it’s predominantly younger, crypto-interested males who have consistently favored Trump as their preferred candidate on this platform.
Last month, one bettor on Polymarket recently placed a massive $45 million bet on Trump. Although Harris has taken the lead on some prediction platforms, Trump still has a slight edge on Polymarket, with a lead of 15.7 cents as of Saturday morning. He had been increasing his lead since early October, but recent events have caused that margin to close.
On the platform, Trump currently has the support of $1,225,567,333 worth of bets, while Harris stands at $776,568,898.
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2024-11-04 16:57