As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for spotting trends and a keen interest in prediction markets, I find myself intrigued by the surge of activity on Polymarket, particularly around U.S. election outcomes. Having navigated through the 2016 and 2020 elections, I’ve learned to take these predictions with a grain of salt, but the numbers are hard to ignore.
Approximately 88% of the total trading volume on the platform Polygon-based Polymarket in 2024 has been associated with wagers concerning the results of the U.S. elections, as indicated by data from Dune Analytics.
As a long-time political enthusiast who has closely followed elections for decades, it’s fascinating to witness the growing role that blockchain technology is playing in the democratic process. This year, I’ve been captivated by the surge of activity on prediction platforms like Polymarket, where a staggering $650 million has been traded so far. The fact that nearly half of this volume took place in just one month (July) shows how much interest there is in the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.
Richard Chen, who used to be a general partner at 1confirmation, pointed out that trades on the Dune platform related to categories labeled “Predicted Winner of the 2024 Presidential Election” and “Democratic Party’s Nominee for 2024” make up half of the platform’s total trading activity.
As a researcher examining the performance of various types of wagers, I’ve noticed an interesting trend: Election-related bets have consistently shown superior returns compared to other events such as the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund in January or even the Paris Olympics this month.
Despite no major elections occurring, the Polygon-based betting service managed to generate significant attention throughout the year. Spikes in activity unconnected to the U.S. presidential election were observed in January, May, June, and August.
Despite Polymarket’s impressive showing in 202X, there’s still doubt about whether it can keep up the pace in years without elections. Chen is confident, however, that large cryptocurrency investors (crypto whales) and the platform’s current momentum will sustain enough activity to continue its growth.
The distribution of wallets leans more toward non-election market investments rather than the volume, indicating that large investors or ‘whales’ may have a greater influence in the election markets.
— Richard Chen (@richardchen39) August 19, 2024
Polymarket: Harris ahead of Trump
In simpler terms, people who had placed significant bets in the biggest prediction market are betting that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump when it comes to the election.
According to crypto.news, Harris gained momentum and overtook Trump’s initial lead shortly following Trump’s survival of an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania. At that point, Harris had a 51% probability of winning, while Trump had a 47%. Overall, users on Polymarket had wagered approximately $642 million on the election’s final outcome.
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2024-08-19 21:38