With the US election only a day away, Trump, Harris getting closer on Polymarket

As a seasoned researcher with years of experience in political and financial analysis, I find myself intrigued by the shifting odds in the U.S. presidential elections. The data from Polymarket suggests a narrowing gap between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, which is indeed fascinating to observe.


As tomorrow, November 5th approaches, the probability of either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is becoming increasingly close.

Based on information from Polymarket, Trump’s likelihood of winning the election dropped from its peak of 67% on October 30 to 57% at the present moment. On the contrary, Harris experienced an increase in her chances, rising from a low of 33.1% to 43% during the same period.

With the elections approaching, the accumulated wagers on the upcoming U.S. President on the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket have gone beyond the $3 billion threshold.

Trump is leading with a betting volume of $1.2 billion, followed by Harris’ $772 million. 

One of the main reasons could be the Republican candidate’s Milwaukee rally as Trump had technical issues with the microphone. Trump-themed meme coins also witnessed sharp declines, per the crypto.news report.

Is Polymarket accurate?

Discussions about the reliability of the cryptocurrency market prediction tool are rampant these days. As per an article on crypto.news, analyst Jacob King from WhaleWire expressed his viewpoint that crypto enthusiasts might wager on Donald Trump’s victory, potentially influencing the election odds in favor of the Republican candidate.

This is due to Trump’s so-called crypto-friendly approach.

The New York Times suggested that Polymarket is biased, but its CEO, Shayne Coplan, disputed this, instead describing it as a platform for “cryptocurrency-based betting.

Coplan noted that Polymarket operates on a decentralized system, enabling external users to place bets and access openly available trading information.

Polymarket has been operating outside the U.S. due to regulatory restrictions.

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2024-11-04 12:03